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The West Bank scenario unfolds in Lebanon

Posted By admin On January 12, 2011 @ 8:54 pm In Hezbollah, feature | No Comments

Hezbollah pulled out of the government in expectation of indictment by the Hariri tribunal [1]. The move only confirms that Hezbollah has transformed itself from a terrorist group into a political party. For a militant group, it would have made sense to remain in the government and disregard the tribunal’s verdict. A political group, on the other hand, cares about its image more than power or money, so Hezbollah prevented PR fallout from the verdict by staging a PR coup of its own. And so Hezbollah the political party brought down Hariri’s government to deflect the upcoming indictment.

We reiterate our view that a Hezbollah coup is unlikely. Nasrallah knows that Israel would be only too happy to use that as a pretext to bomb his arsenal of 60,000 rockets.

More likely, the Lebanese government will follow the path of Fatah: a technically illegitimate government continues to operate as long as a new government cannot be formed.

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[1] Hariri tribunal: http://samsonblinded.org/news/?s=%2BHariri+%2Btribunal