As we have predicted (here and here), right-wingers narrowly lost to Kadima. Right-wing parties scored 65 seats out of 120 (Likud 27, Lieberman 15, National Union 4, Jewish Home 3, Haredim 16, and perhaps one more, pending final results). Kadima received one more seat than Likud.
Now it’s up to Lieberman. If he refuses to sit in Livni’s government, she cannot establish a coalition and Peres will pass the right to form the government to Netanyahu. Not only has Lieberman replaced Shas as the linchpin, he holds more power: almost any government could bypass Shas by involving unsavory ultra-leftist and Arab parties, but Lieberman is almost indispensable. It is unlikely that Livni can draw Shas, UTJ, ultra-leftists, and Arabs together to gain majority support.
What would Lieberman ask for supporting Livni? The problem is that he has nothing to ask for because his party has no immediate goals. Livni will promise him support on political reform and civil marriage, but continue with the peace process.
Alternatively, Lieberman may choose the path of fame, and reject Livni’s overtures. She understands the problem and would try to bring Netanyahu into the coalition to prevent Lieberman’s defection. In any case, Israelis have gotten what they voted for—an unoperational hodgepodge of ruling parties instead of a government.
