The addition of 30,000 troops to US forces in Afghanistan is insufficient to saturate the country and pacify it. Bush’s surge in Iraq worked temporarily because the Americans concurrently built tribal alliances, and those tribes expelled Al Qaeda and some Shiite terrorists. No similar option exists for Afghanistan, where clans are weaker than in Iraq, and guerrillas are immensely stronger. Moreover, in Afghanistan guerrillas are more dispersed than in Iraq; 30,000 troops are a meaningful force in urban combat but not in mountain warfare. Enjoying their safe haven in Pakistan’s Pashtun areas, Afghani guerrillas can wait out the Americans while wearing them down with terrorist attacks.
The US Afghani campaign is doomed, just like any war in which the occupier lacks the will to fight properly, regardless of collateral damage.
