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Obama is certain of Israeli servility

This year the White House approved all Israeli requests for military assistance and supplies. Such a level of military cooperation is unprecedented. It is, moreover, being augmented by massive intelligence cooperation.

At the same time, the Obama administration sternly opposed an Israeli strike on Iran. His levers include refusing to share data with Israel from the Negev-based X-band radar and refusing to activate Patriot batteries manned by American teams. Both measures leave Israel vulnerable to an Iranian missile attack, though not completely defenseless. It is our prediction, however, that the Iranians would not counter-attack.

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Mr Obama may be the greatest threat Israel has faced. He is leading a country where the majority of voters would back a limited military strike against Iran’s aggressions and threats. Yet he not only refuses to consider it, he actually maneuvers to prevent anyone from being able to deal with Iran. In May he asked Mr Netanyahu to withdraw to pre 1967 boundaries. A position that leaves very little chance of defending never mind the loss of hard won land.
Iran’s threats to Israel are well known as well as its ongoing support of terrorism and terrorist groups. Iran is probably very close to being able to assemble a nuclear device or if needed could purchase as it has purchased the technology. Iran is very aware that the Obama Administration will not use military force to strike at its nuclear program. So far indications are that US sanctions have increased government support rather than hinder it as the US hoped. Iran is also aware that the Israeli cabinet is too fractured offer any real military threat. With this knowledge and aggressive rhetoric and behaviour the government and ruling cleric have been able to use national pride to keep public support.
Saudi Arabia’s investment in Pakistan’s Nuclear Program has been known since the 1970s. This arrangement allows Saudi Arabia rapid access to nuclear weapons and technology when needed. Iran’s obtaining a nuclear weapon would create such a need. So far the Saudi Royal Family has been able to avoid. suffering from the Arab Spring through major spending billions to spread the wealth. This will probably not last much longer because the coffers are getting lower. The US is pushing for political reform and clerics are constantly pushing for greater influence. Over the next year or two there will be either reform or forced regime change in Saudi Arabia. Such a change with nuclear capabilities would make another interesting situation for Israel.
US support of the Arab Spring in Egypt has resulted in the Muslim Brotherhood about to take power. A recent poll in Egypt shows that 7/10 voters are against US foreign aid. The Military leaders are big US supporters as US aid goes a long way in keeping the military budget going. The Muslim Brotherhood needs to replace this funding and the obvious source of funding is Iran. Rumours are that negotiations are already under way.
So far Mr Obama’s results in the Middle East have created greater risk to Israel while withholding much needed military support. He may not be Brutus to Israel’s Caesar sticking a knife in Israel’s back but he seems intent on creating the opportunity for someone else to do it.

Bill Oshawa 12 February 2012

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