In the wake of ceasefire talks, fighting intensified in Gaza. By now a long-term truce is out of question, and only a short-term ceasefire is being discussed. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and FM Livni agree with Hamas on a short-term ceasefire because IDF has exhausted its strategic options in Gaza, while other Israeli ministers pushed for a long-term solution that would eradicate Hamas. Olmert sharply disagrees with the short-term ceasefire.
Israel and Hamas made drastically different demands for ceasefire. Hamas accepted, at most, that IDF withdraws from Gaza immediately upon the ceasefire agreement; earlier Hamas had insisted on withdrawal as a precondition of ceasefire. Israel insists on staying in northern Gaza for a prolonged time to ensure an end to Kassam attacks and eventually deliver the area to Fatah. For its part, Fatah doesn’t want to take over Gaza, even its northern part, as it fears another defeat at the hands of Hamas.
Hamas also demands that Israel open all crossings into Gaza. The demand is not absurd, but the Israeli government insists on sealing Gaza off.
The parties disagree on significant technicalities: Hamas is only prepared to see a token international force in Rafah, one that cannot finish off its tunnel industry and weapons smuggling. Israel insists on a more stringent solution. Since no international force can end the smuggling, Israel would eventually compromise.
Hamas cannot ensure compliance with the ceasefire. As the past few months have shown, smaller guerrilla groups will continue firing at Israel. As a result of the Israeli invasion, a younger generation of militants has advanced in Hamas’ hierarchy as their older brethren hid in bunkers.
Hamas is unwilling to offer Israel anything more than a short-term ceasefire—essentially a pause to re-arm.
As before, the ceasefire can only be implicit, as Israel refuses to recognize Hamas or negotiate with it directly. The absence of a detailed written agreement opens the door to mutual accusations, and the new ceasefire will end in a spiral of violence just like the one that expired on December 19.
It’s odd for Israel to recognize Hamas for the purpose of fighting it, but not for talking to it.
