Livni not going to attack Iran

Tzipi Livni’s Foreign Ministry has designed a massive program to cope with Obama’s approach to Iran. Obama has repeatedly stated the need for direct dialogue with Iran. The absurdity of this repels no voters: what’s the point of direct negotiations when both countries already know each other’s demands? In Obama’s direct negotiations with Iran, the US will only reiterate its well-known position of would Iran please stop developing nuclear weapons. Iran’s answer is similarly known beforehand: no.

Obama’s approach shows the leftists’ quasi-religious belief that talking solves problems. Leftists since Plato have believed that every problem can be rationally discussed and settled. For Obama, the world is one big Harvard classroom where  matters are debated, and then the opponents walk out amicably.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry has created four groups, which will jump into action as soon as Obama is elected. They will press Iran on diplomatic, human rights, sanctions, and IAEA fronts which have already proven useless. Essentially, Livni is preparing to join Obama’s talking group. Barak is even more hesitant to attack Iran, as he was the only dissenter in the government decision to attack Syria a year ago.

Earlier, Olmert discussed attacking Iran after the US elections but before the inauguration of the next president. The preparations by Livni’s Foreign Ministry show that plan has been shelved. Israel will not bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities while the US-Iranian negotiations drag on. And drag they will—as with Vietnam, there will be endless squabbles over minor issues down to the shape of conference tables. The negotiations will provide Iran with the critical few months it needs to complete its bomb.

Iran has already enriched enough uranium for several micro-charges, or even a tactical bomb with advanced design, such as a Russian one. Israel’s procrastination allows it to build full-size strategic bombs. An Iranian nuclear bomb spells an end to Israel’s nuclear deterrence, and opens the way for Arabs to attack Israel with conventional means. At the very least, Arabs can bankrupt Israel with a conventional arms race, border insecurity, and repeated mobilizations. Without her nuclear deterrent, Israel can be pushed for concessions far beyond the Saudi “peace” plan. In fact, the US will push her to accept Arab demands so as to avoid the need for forceful American policy in defense of Israel.

After Livni’s government sits idle while Iran builds its nuclear weapons, Israel can still theoretically maintain her nuclear deterrence by promising to annihilate every thing Muslim with her 200 nuclear bombs if attacked. Realistically, no Israeli government would do so. Golda Meir’s hawkish government shrunk from employing nuclear weapons in 1973 even as the Egyptian army was poised to thrust toward Tel Aviv with the stated objective of killing every Jew they encountered. The already meager value of Israel’s nuclear deterrent will be gone if Livni and Barak’s cabal of traitors allows Iran nuclear weapons.

Ben Gurion created the state of Israel. It takes Livni to wind it down. But she is not alone: millions of complacent Israelis with Judenrat mentalities are guilty of not ousting her.