The NATO adventure in Libya will more likely than not result in protracted hostilities. A fundamental problem is that a ruler who enters his capital on foreign bayonets is usually weak and will remain so, unlike the homegrown ruler who ascends to power by years of intrigues and knows his country’s system in every detail.
Tactically, Gadhafi’s forces are not defeated, and he can activate them with moderate financing. The Berber tribes long for independence. Oil revenues will decline, squandered to Western oil corporations and the rebels’ empty pockets. Al Qaeda and its affiliates will rush into the power vacuum.
When the unrest from Libya spills into Algeria, the region will go up in flames.