That way, Russia accused the West of not giving in to the Iranian scheme. Iran sought to receive enriched uranium from the West before exporting  its own stocks.

The Russians are rightly concerned with Hamas’ power, rather than its legitimacy.

The event went sour when the Russian government hinted that the conference wouldn’t take place. Naturally, the regime that did away with the major jewish oligarchs is not happy with muscle-flexing by the surviving second-tiers.

The conference will be moved to Jerusalem, but now many oligarchs will skip it to avoid incurring Putin’s displeasure.

The T-50 is reportedly a re-engineered version of the American F/A-22. While puritans might decry the Russian habit of stealing foreign designs from the Kalashnikoff to the T-50, this is a cost-effective policy.

It will probably take at least five years for the Russians to introduce the first squadrons of T-50s, about the same time as would be required for F/A-22 delivery to Israel. The T-50 is rumored to be offered for export at $50 to 70 million, which would be a quarter to half the price of the F/A-22. Certainly, Russia will be more forthcoming than the US administration in allowing Jews to install our own avionics into the jets. Spending a few billion for Russian jets will do more to stop S-300 sales to iran and S-400 to Syria than any diplomatic pressure.

As usual, the Russian copy will be less reliable than the American original and will have the engine problems that plague Sukhoi’s currently manufactured models, but they are suprasuffcient for any of IAF’s operations against Muslims.

One need not worry over such statements. He just seeks to please his clients. Besides, Rosoboronexport has a personal quarrel with the US, which imposed sanctions on it specifically to limit weapons sales to Iran. So he is teasing the Americans.

Though there are no legal impediments to S-300 sales, American pressure so far has effectively prevented Russia from delivering the SAM batteries to Iran.

The Russian president was reportedly instrumental in releasing Mrs. Belfer. No similar concessions were obtained from Russia, which has jailed scores of Israelis, including the notorious guerrilla instructor Colonel Klein.

The Russians are sensitive to their 800,000 non-Jewish compatriots who reside in Israel.

As far as anyone knows, the only contract signed for S-300 is about two years old.

The Israeli announcement made no waves in international media because it is not news. Of course Iran supplies Syria, PIJ, and Hezbollah. Obama has already accepted Iran as a Middle East superpower. Of course Muslims are expected to fight Israel. Iran, a sovereign state, can ship arms to whomever it wishes. So Israeli PR is only good for domestic consumption.

While verbally blasting Iran, Lebanon, and even Egypt, which allegedly failed to inspect the cargo (though the Egyptians likely alerted the Americans, which allowed Israel to intercept the ship), the government keeps silent about Russia. But the shipment abounded with Russian, rather than Iranian weapons. The Russians continue to supply Iran with Katyusha rockets despite the weapons embargo.

The deal is fishy: it is unthinkable that the US would surrender its major weapons market to the Russians. In terms of purchasing-power parity, a $7 billion Saudi purchase from Russia means a $35 billion loss for the American military-industrial complex.

S-400 would endanger all Israeli aircraft in the Negev. Just recently, IAF finished transferring its major base from Lod to Negev. In Lod, the base was in danger from Palestinian rockets.
Netanyahu asked for guarantees that the Saudis would deploy S-400 on the border with Iran rather than Israel, but nothing precludes the Saudis from reneging on their promises.

The location of the S-400 is not a problem because the Saudis won’t attack Israel. But Russian weapons sales to Saudi Arabia would open other Arab markets and flood the region with cheap and efficient Russian arms.

The Saudi deal won’t preclude the Russians from delivering S-300 to Iran. US officials imagine that everyone is motivated by money and that Russia would rationally abandon Iran for a better deal. But Russia sells S-300 to Iran to gain influence in the region, rather than earn a few hundred million dollars.

Just like Syria’s other arsenals, the rockets will find their way to Hezbollah.

S-300 in the air and Onyx at sea severely curtail Israeli offensive capabilities: a rocket costs a thousand times less than its target.

The rejection reverses Russia’s previous acceptance of sanctions. We might expect the Russians to similarly rethink their promise not to sell S-300 to Iran.

Pauperized Iran managed to offer the Russians a better bribe than mega-rich America.

The outside enrichment plan might not materialize because Russia has to demand that Iran return the spent rods after using them in the Bushehr reactor. Iran, however, needs the enriched uranium for reprocessing to weapons-grade, and cannot return it.

Whatever way the turmoil goes, Russia benefits from it. It profits from weapons sales to Iran, gains influence with Iran by agreeing to supply S-300, and with Israel by delaying the supply. In case of an Israeli attack on Iran, Russia would profit from increased oil prices. If Israel does not attack Iran, Russia will get oil and gas concessions there for preventing the strike.

Since the communist times, Russians have relied on a smart and cheap policy of creating turmoil abroad and profiting from it.

Medvedev seemed to confirm that Russians might be supplying S-300s to Iran to prevent an Israeli attack and ensure regional quiet and stability—until Iran produces enough nuclear bombs.

The Russian position toward Iran is ambivalent. They do not want a nuclear neighbor which could influence Azerbaijan, but they expect Azerbaijan to lean closer to Russia when threatened by nuclear Iran. The Russians gain most by an undecided policy: they act as a regional lynchpin by threatening to sell S-300. At the same time, their prestige would suffer when Israel jammed their top export system during an attack, so they are not eager to deliver S-300s to Iran.

The Russians will decide on the sale based on the status of their confrontation with Obama and the oil concessions offered by Iran.

Instead of risking billions of dollars worth of aircraft against S-300 in Iran, Israel should purchase a sufficient volume of weapons in Russia to woo the Russians away from Iran. But the US does not let Israel buy Russian weapons.

Then, however, Gates announced that scrapping the ABM was not a concession to the Russians, but that in fact a supposedly better system of interceptors is on its way. Gates’ words were meant for Obama critics who had accused him of bowing to Russian pressure.

The Russians took Gates’ words seriously. Their chief of staff announced that the decision to stop the Iskander deployment has not been made yet.

Israeli concern with the S-300 supplies to Iran shows that the attack has not been written off.

It seems that Netanyahu is pushing for stronger sanctions as an excuse for military inaction against Iran. This is also the policy of his new friend Shimon Peres and his old rival Ehud Barak.

The lack of payment, which was to come from Iran, is not the only reason for stalling the deal. Clearly, Russia can go only so far in confronting American interests in the Middle East, and avoids supplying advanced jets to the  Syrian-Iranian coalition. Another reason for hesitation is that Russian officials do not want the US Treasury to go after their foreign bank accounts.

Even with a few dozen advanced jets, the Syrian Air Force would remain negligible compared to IAF.

- why would a foreign ship have undergone major body repairs in the Russian port of Kaliningrad just before the odd trip?
- why would pirates hijack a ship carrying just $1.8 million worth of paper or timber, especially in the heavily controlled Baltic Sea?
- why did the Russians broadcast a highly improbable story about pirates inspecting the ship for twelve hours and then leaving it—while the ship was missing?
- why did EU authorities became so concerned over the hijacking of a minor vessel, and how come so many Russian Navy, including submarines, were conveniently stationed near Capo Verde to intercept the vessel?
- why would the Russians undertake such a mammoth rescue operation for a Maltese ship en route from Finland to Algeria?
- why did Shimon Peres fly to meet Medvedev immediately after the incident?

The Arctic Sea trip does not seem like an operation sanctioned by the Russian government, or else Peres would have met Putin rather than Medvedev. So many Russian Navy ships following the Arctic Sea all the way to Capo Verde suggest not a secret government operation, but rather a full-blown intercept. GRU, Russian military intelligence, has excellent capabilities for secret logistics, and would not likely have resorted to such an odd scenario.
Also, no sensible payment would justify the major diplomatic turmoil after Russian supplies of X-55 cruise missiles or S-300 to Iran were revealed. X-55, moreover, are more convenient to deliver by transport planes. It seems that some Russians rather than the government shipped the cargo.

It seems that a group within the Russian establishment has really supplied something dangerous. The shipment might be intended for Algeria—which reportedly is running an advanced military nuclear program—or for transhipment to Iran or Syria.
The cargo was so large that the ship required extensive body repairs in Kaliningrad, so it is not a stock of uranium rods or centrifuges, but might perhaps be S-300 radar. Not impossibly, though, the body works sealed the cargo compartments rather than cut a hole for moving the cargo in.
Israel mostly hijacks hostile ships, but in the case of Russian cargo it was impossible to openly bring the ship to an Israeli port. It might be that the Israeli assault was not botched, and the cargo was destroyed.

Our information on FSB capabilities suggests that such a scenario is rather unlikely. FSB uses standard Western electronic surveillance equipment, and is not capable of a long-term, wide-area-cover operation.

We would, however, view the FSB’s involvement as highly encouraging, signifying the messianic pangs:, it would mark for the first time a situation in which the United States, the EU, and Russia all simultaneously supported Israel’s enemies.

The Chabad movement brought the case to save tens of thousands of manuscripts which the Nazis and Russians had looted from Jews in the twentieth century. The manuscripts are stored in appalling conditions, and many have found their way to the black market.

The Russians refuse to transfer the manuscripts to Chabad. The Israeli government transferred Sergiev Courtyard in Jerusalem to the Russians.

This confirms our long-standing belief that Israel can engage Russia very closely by buying its weapons. Our $2 billion a year in purchases of American weapons are nothing for the United States, and do not affect relations significantly, but Russia would do everything for a $2 billion-a-year customer. Russian weapons are three to five times cheaper than American weapons and are of adequate quality.

Speaking of appeasement, Russia is not alone. The British FM called for political negotiations with Hamas.

Lavrov also met Hamas leader Mashaal and assured him of his future cooperation.

During Lavrov’s visit, Syrian media disproved the report that Russia halted MiG-31E sales to Syria.

Nevzlin, an associate of jailed Russian oligarch Khodorkovsky, is hiding in Israel from Russian prosecution.

The Israeli FM refuses to exchange Nevzlin because he is rich and famous. In a less publicized case, the Israeli Supreme Court agreed to the extradition of Alexander Pertzov to Ukraine despite clear danger to his life.

The Israeli government is less sensitive to Jewish sensitivities, allowing homosexual parades in Jerusalem.

Syria will also receive the SAMs.

The sale could not have gone through without Obama’s approval: due to the economic crisis, the Russians wouldn’t risk jeopardizing relations with the US, which strenuously objected before. Obama benefits from the sale, as S-300s might deter Israel from attacking Iran.

Israel returned to Russia a part of Sergiev Courtyard, a prime real estate in Jerusalem, but Russians insist that confiscated Jewish property is theirs forever.

Livni’s FM refused calls to condition the transfer of Sergiev Courtyard on the return of the Ginzburg collection.

Besides the collection, Russia holds hundreds of synagogues and thousands of houses confiscated from Jews murdered in the Holocaust and political repressions.

The deal was blocked months ago: the Bush administration objected because the drones used American parts, and the Israeli Foreign Ministry concurred with the Americans. This time, both Lieberman and Obama support rapprochement with Russia.

The Russians are cynically sensible: their influence over Iran is near zero, but they need Iran badly, both for regional influence and to form the natural gas cartel.

The Russians came up with a better proposal. Their long-range aviation chief announced that Chavez had offered him a Venezuelan island with airstrips for Russian long-range bombers. Instead of giving in to Obama’s threat, the Russians implied a counter-threat: if the United States deploys ABMs in Poland, Russia will reciprocate with strategic nuclear bombers in Venezuela.

Confirming our expectations, the Russian general also spoke of basing strategic bombers in Cuba. The development recalls the Cuban missile crisis, when Russians deployed nuclear missiles there in response to American missiles in Turkey.

Lavrov called for making the Middle East a nuclear-free zone. In Russian parlance, that means America should disarm Israel first, before asking Russia to abandon nuclear cooperation with Iran.

As with other small threats, this one did not work out, as the Russians escalated the conflict with strategic bomber patrols and ABMs on the Baltic border.

In correspondence with Putin, Obama explicitly offered to halt the Polish ABM plans in return for Russian cooperation against Iran.

What Obama does not understand is that international relations lack the goodwill characteristic of Harvard classroom debates. Iran and the Russians exploit his softness rather than reciprocate it.

Russia has recently completed renovation of Tartus port in Syria for its Navy and ABM defenses, reestablished political ties with Cuba, signed a nuclear deal with Venezuela, and delivered ABMs to Iran.

Obama speaks of improving relations with Russia.

The transfer of Jerusalem property to Russia establishes a major precedent, which allows foreign governments, charities, and churches to claim vast tracts of prime land in Israel.

Direct military imports to Hamas from Russia would explain an odd Russian “aid” cargo to Gaza during the recent war.

The Russian government works to create anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Europe by blaming the low supply of gas to Europe on Ukrainian theft. That explanation doesn’t hold water: Russia delivered about 300 cub.m. of gas to Europe through Ukraine daily. Ukraine steals 15-20 mil cub.m., that is, 5-6% of the total. Rather, Russia deliberately reduced the gas supply to Europe by two thirds in order to create ill-will against Ukraine.

The Putin-Medvedev government launched a media campaign against Ukraine that rivaled the worst Soviet propaganda. Now, that’s odd. Russians are generally well disposed toward the ethnically similar Ukrainians. The Russian government has no reason to rally its population against Ukraine over a commercial issue. Putin cut the gas supply to Ukraine…okay, that’s it, why incite common Russians?

The answer may lie in Putin’s speech a few days ago. On New Year eve, Putin spoke of a brotherly Ukrainian nation led by dumb-heads. This parallels his rhetoric regarding Georgia. An all-out war with Ukraine is unlikely, especially after the Russians just lost a bid to occupy Georgia. Russia acts according to the textbook KGB approach of destabilizing an unfriendly regime and looking for an opportunity to replace it with puppet government.

Of course it was Martians, rather than Russians, who killed hundreds of thousands civilians in Chechnya, Afghanistan, and similarly unfortunate places. And of course, Russian nuclear arrangements with Iran and Egypt, as well as S-300 sales, serve to stabilize the region.

Instead of rebuking Russia’s anti-Semitic regime, Israeli officials listen to them subserviently and bring gifts, such as the Sergiev Courtyard in Jerusalem.

Curiously, Arabs keep good relations with Russia, despite its atrocities in Muslim Afghanistan. Compare this to the universal hatred of the United States after Iraq, and of Israel. Arabs respect brute force, or rather the forces of brutes.

The Russians have embarked on a diplomatic offensive to win the Middle East from Americans. Besides the nuclear deals, arms sales, and stationing the Russian Navy in Syria, Russians have embraced PR measures. Thus, Medvedev ordered an aid package into Gaza. Technically, Russian aid amounts to nonsense: a direct flight from Russia brought to Gaza twenty tons of fuel (imagine the costs) and clothes (why would the Gazans suddenly need any?). Russian aid is only 0.2% of routine UNRWA and Israel (uh…) deliveries, but highly publicized.

And most insultingly, the Israeli PM cares to listen to Russians after they supplied S-300s to Iran, agreed to deploy one in Syria, and even though they sell weapons to just about every enemy of Israel.

The Russian move apparently follows a visit by Senator Richard Lugar to Moscow. If not for Kissinger’s involvement, we might have taken Lugar’s trip for routine business on Russian de-nuclearization. This might indeed been the case: in the wake of the Poland ABM and Georgia debacles, Russia vowed to stop reprocessing its old nuclear warheads which it—technically—sells to the United States at throwaway prices. The deal, in force since the early 1990s, is widely viewed in Russia as hugely detrimental to Russian security and economic interests.

Lugar, a Republican, is close to Obama, and very probably delivered a message from him to Putin. Used to forceful and harmless negotiations in Harvard classrooms, Obama—we may guess—overplayed his hand with the Russians and grossly offended Putin, who retaliated with a move against America’s Jewish clients.

S-300PMU is Russia’s top-of-the-line, export-grade anti-aircraft battery, which would protect Iranian nuclear sites against Israeli attack.

The S-300 anti-aircraft battery sale is odd. Theoretically, Russians deliver to Iran a stripped-down export version of S-300, a copy of Cyprus’ anti-aircraft battery, which IAF successfully jammed in the Mediterranean exercises. In a few months, Turkey will receive its own S-300 from Russia, and has already pledged to make it available to Israeli Air Force for training. In its export version, S-300 didn’t live up to its advertised capacity to intercept any mass-produced aircraft.

With an Israeli strike on Iran still an option, the Russians would have no interest in discrediting their top-notch weapon. So why the sale? The immediate reason is that the Russian government is making its way back into Middle East politics. By jeopardizing Israel’s plans to attack Iran and the US threats to the same effect, Russia positions itself as a power to be consulted on all Middle East affairs. This signifies a return to the typical Soviet policy of propping up conflicts all over the world as the cheapest way to maintain geopolitical significance.

Another possibility is that the S-300 anti-aircraft battery supplied to Iran is not an export version, but a much more capable Russian domestic type that IAF has not been trained to circumvent. Though a violation of international treaties, that is not unthinkable, as Russia practically agreed to deliver the immensely more powerful S-400 to Syria. Technically, the S-400 will be located on Russian-leased naval base in Syrian port of Tartus to protect the Russian navy; but in practice the anti-aircraft battery will protect most of the Syrian territory against Israeli planes.

Israel earlier presented the Russian government with Sergiev Courtyard, a prime and extremely sensitive piece of real estate in Jerusalem, as a goodwill gesture for Russian promises to abstain from supplying anti-aircraft batteries to Iran.

Israel’s window of opportunity for attacking Iran is closing rapidly. In this regard, the S-300 delivery to Iran might be a good news for Israeli leaders who seek a plausible reason to put up with the Iranian nuclear program.

In a separate deal, Russia deliverd ten MIG-29 jets to Lebanon free. The Russians are not bothered by the fact that Hezbollah fully controls the Lebanese government.