Despite an apparent agreement with the opposition, Yemen is convulsing under terrorist attacks staged by Shiite insurgents, obviously supported by Iran. Whether under Saleh or his VP, the central government is losing control of large areas to Shiites and Al Qaeda.

Instead of strengthening Saleh to destroy the insurgents by whatever means necessary, the US adopted the Saudi plan. The Saudis, however, have a completely different objective in Yemen: carving out a stable mini-state along the Saudi border—and to hell with the rest of the country, which will inevitably fall to terrorists.

Forget the US, even the Saudis cannot make up their minds about Yemen. They sometimes seem intent on partitioning it in order to create a peaceful zone along the Saudi/Yemeni border, abandoning the rest of the country to anarchy. At other times they seem to recognize that terrorist violence would likely overflow into the peaceful area.

Meanwhile, Al Qaeda is taking advantage of the power vacuum to make major inroads into Yemen, establishing itself in town after town. By positioning themselves as the most efficient opposition force, the terrorists win the political loyalty of the inhabitants.

Ousting the terrorist group from urban areas would be far more difficult than targeting its camps in Waziristan. The media have reasonable access to Aden, and unrestrained drone attacks such as the US conducts in Pakistan, with the massive civilian casualties they cause, are not an option there. And there are no indigenous troops to displace the terrorists. On the other hand, an Al Qaeda foothold on the Red Sea will send the Saudis into high gear, and they are able to field a force for urban combat in Aden.

The unsustainability of a unity government in Sanaa is even more clear than in Tripoli because the Yemeni opposition detests Saleh’s sons much more than it hates Saleh himself.

After Western terrorists—reportedly British special forces—tried to assassinate Saleh in his palace with a missile strike, the Saudis took him in for treatment and saved his life. If the Saudis had accepted Saleh’s departure in favor of the opposition, it would have been all too easy for them to let the 69-year-old die in the ER, with shrapnel near his heart and burns on 40% his body. Instead, they brought Saleh back to life, and he promises to be back in Sanaa within days.

Arguably, the Saudis were enraged by the Western terrorist tactic of targeting unfriendly rulers for assassination. After months of hunting Gadhafi, the NATO turned on Saleh—idiotically, since he was a reasonably staunch ally against Al Qaeda, and is now expected to make an attempt on Assad. It was not lost on the Saudi royals that one day they may become the next target.

Political assassinations are not bad per se. They are an economical way of pursuing Western objectives. The problem is that they are applied in pursuit of extremely wrong objectives. And if we are targeting Gadhafi, why not assassinate Ahmadinejad or Meshaal as well?

Arab societies are slowly breaking out of their old paternalist structure and becoming more like the lumpen nineteenth-century European states.

When the opposition wins, pro-Iranian groups and Al Qaeda will enjoy unrestricted freedom in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia and the GCC states offered to mediate a transfer of power from Yemen’s president to the rebels. That means that Saudi Arabia is no longer backing the president, as it did for two months, and only needs assurances from the opposition that Yemen won’t fell under the spell of Iran. Presumably an Al Qaeda presence in Yemen would be okay.

Obama concurrently undermines loyal Middle East regimes by supporting revolutionary movements there, and hopes that their rulers will maintain their allegiance to the White House until they are toppled.