The Armenian genocide resolution would be a heavy blow to the embattled remnants of Turkey’s secular establishment, as it would signify that America does not support them anymore.

Perhaps Obama could send Clinton to do the hack job on the resolution in Congress. So far, he has kept a low profile in urging congress to vote against the resolution. Obama is constrained by his clear electoral promise to classify the Turkish massacre of Armenians as genocide—which, like his other promises, he cannot fulfill.

In the past, the Turkish military used to purge the government of leaders who had Islamic leanings with periodic putsches, but its desire to join  the EU and American pressure for democratization have led the army to accede to the current Islamist government. Pushed away by the EU and vying with Iran for influence in Islamic world, Turkey predictably has become more religious.

Once the government succeeds in weakening the Turkish army, the state may well erupt into violence among the numerous religious and ethnic groups. The divide between Turkey’s atheist and religious population is in itself deep enough to cause civil war. It remains to be seen whether Erdogan will succeed in installing his own commanders in the army. So far, all military graduates are staunchly secular.

As we have seen in Palestine and elsewhere, politics eventually follow rhetoric.

Erdogan could not afford to embrace Barak after Israeli media trumpeted Ayalon’s humiliation of the Turkish ambassador. It is important to realize that Turkey was not reacting to the humiliation per se, but rather to Israeli coverage of it.

Livni is wrong. Smart governments do not take sides, but constantly maneuver to maximize benefits for their people. Israel used to maneuver between Russia, France, Germany, and America before the government grew corrupt and lazy. Erdogan can only be praised by his people for his skillful pull-and-push game with Israel and his ability to maintain working relations with any country from America to Iran.

Humiliatingly, Israel succumbed to Turkey’s undiplomatic threat to recall its ambassador. Turkey thus won on all counts: it got away with airing anti-Semitic TV shows, with Erdogan’s virulently anti-Israeli remarks in Lebanon, and with issuing an ultimatum to Israel. In the Muslim world, Erdogan became a new hero who had prevailed over Israel. “Israel understands only Turkish” is now a typical headline from Arab media.

Iran is much stronger and more vocal than Syria, which let it pass when IAF flew through Turkish airspace to attack its reactor. Erdogan had no prior knowledge of the overflight, but Turkish air defenses could not have missed a massive number of Israeli jets flying toward Iran.

The Israeli government will be unwilling to risk its fragile relations with Turkey, especially since Saudi Arabia has agreed to provide its airspace for the attack. It is a great advantage for Israel that Saudi Arabia is a monarchy that cares nothing about its people’s opinion.

The media also welcomed Ahmadinejad’s speech, in which he proclaimed a switch from confrontation to cooperation with the world on nuclear issues. That does not mean that Iran has agreed to halt its nuclear program or export its enriched uranium. Rather, Ahmadinejad says that the West has abandoned its bellicose stance toward Iran and moved toward cooperation—on Iran’s terms.

Ehud Barak praised Assad’s remark that Syrians are ready for peace with Israel. That depends on your definitions of ready and peace. Having started and lost three wars with Israel, it is not surprising that the Syrians are ready for peace. But what kind of peace? Syria will retake the biblical Bashan (the Golan Heights), occupy the shore of Lake Kineret and receive half the lake. It will continue serving as a Russian and Iranian military base, continue to support Hamas and Hezbollah, and like Egypt it will wait for a chance to strike at Israel.

Even as she seeks to import water, Israel continues supplying Kineret water to Jordan and Palestine. Why don’t they import water from Turkey?

Just as Turkey terminated a joint military exercise with Israel and NATO, Obama rewarded the Islamist government by making Armenia forfeit its grievances over the Turkish genocide.

The agreement between Turkey and Armenia bypassed the genocide issue, which is central for Armenians, and relegated it to unspecified future studies. Effectively, the agreement denies the Turkish genocide of Armenians.

Obama hopes to curry favor with Turkey, where popular approval of US policies has sunk to single-digits.

Though Turkey cited the Gaza war as the reason for cancellation, the truth is that Turkey wants no part in an exercise aimed against Iran.

The fact that NATO canceled its participation in the exercise immediately after Turkey’s decision confirms that IAF had a central role in the exercise and a coming attack on Iran.

Just as Turkey’s Islamist parties crumbled in the municipal elections and might not survive the next national elections, Islamists are making inroads into the army and subverting that atheistic and pro-Israeli institution.

A nominally peaceful reactor can be used to harvest plutonium.

Turkey’s government is controlled by Islamists, and the Turkish army recently held joint exercises with Syria.

The Turkish military made the strategic and technological know-how, which it received from Israel, available to Syria.

The joint maneuvers underscore the increased control the Turkish Islamists have over Turkey’s traditionally pro-Western, Israeli-allied military.

The US supported Turkey’s EU bid to reward its NATO ally, and Obama uncritically continues this support despite Turkey’s drift from the West.

Increasingly Islamist Turkey, if allowed to join, would further tilt the EU against Israel.

This fellow, Mitchell…does he watch TV? In the last month, Erdogan has proven himself to be grossly anti-Israeli. He cracked down on Turkish secularism, engaged Syria and Iran, and established cozy relations with Hamas.

The Turkish move might save Israel the half-billion dollars that Jewish tourists spend there annually.

Erdogan avoids a head-on clash with the Turkish army by banning Israeli military aircraft. IAF routinely trains in Turkey, which is the only friendly country with suitable terrain nearby.

Erdogan accused Peres of “murdering children” even though Turkey does just that in reprisal raids against Kurdistan.

After being publicly humiliated, Peres turned the other cheek and phoned Erdogan – not to demand excuses or arrange for duel, but to excuse himself and hear Erdogan’s assurances of Turkey’s commitment to cooperate with Israel. Erdogan has no say on the issue because Israel cooperates mostly with the Turkish army, an institution largely independent from the PM.

 When the army set out to dislodge him, the US and EU pressed Turkey to accept the election results that brought the Islamist PM to power.

Turkey’s secular character is eroding as fervently Muslim masses stream from villages into towns and become politically active. Ataturk’s secularization did not touch Turkish villages.

Turkey’s Islamist PM Erdogan called Hamas rocket attacks on Israel “a mistake,” but also noted correctly than Israel violated the six-month ceasefire understanding by refusing to open the border crossings.

Not long ago, Shimon Peres praised Erdogan’s Turkey as Israel’s major ally against Hamas.