In order to deal with Israeli Druze, the Red Cross has to identify them as an occupied population.

Obama’s error is his hallmark confidence-building approach, which calls for incremental steps. But in order to embrace Washington, Assad has to abandon Iran and Lebanon. Certainly, he would require much stronger incentives for that than ambassadorial relations. Obama can woo Assad away from Iran with really big money, but no money has been promised yet, while Iran continues to finance Syrian military expenditures.

Young Assad won’t give up his emotional ties to Nasrallah or his political designs on Lebanon for peanuts, or even for the Golan Heights, which are of little importance to him.

After the meeting, Assad proclaimed that Israel might attack at any time. Just the words he needs to say if Syria is looking to preempt.

Syria knows that it cannot defeat Israel, but it does not need to. Following Sadat’s 1973 example, Assad may be planning a surprise attack on Israel with mid-range missiles to deflect Israel from attacking Iran and force meaningful talks on the return of the Golan Heights.

Looking at Europe’s condemnation of the Iranian nuclear program, Netanyahu must be busy preparing for a strike on Iran, and does not want to alienate Syria any further. But no doubt, at some point we will have a government which values a piece of paper with Syria’s signature more than it values land, and that government will return the Golan Heights.

Indeed, tens of thousands of Gazan extremists won’t cooperate with Fatah, which only fakes resistance; instead they follow radical Salafist groups which belong to the Al Qaeda franchise.

After 1973, Israel acceded to the demand Egypt had been making since 1971—to return Sinai and live in peace.

Regrettably, Barak is right on this. Syria will attack with a thousand mid-range missiles, and Israel will defeat it, but the shock will force Israelis to negotiate away the Golan Heights.

No peace is expected soon.

Assad is very fond of the ayatollahs, and there is a high probability that he will allow his country to be dragged into the war against his better judgment.

A war with Syria might greatly benefit Israel by ending negotiations over the Golan Heights. But if Syrian rocket strikes were overwhelming, leftists would use it to convince the Israeli public to sign a peace treaty with Syria.

Such a stance on the part of Syria is unlikely. Syria’s confidence is astonishing: having started and lost three wars, and having accomplished nothing by decades of terrorist fighting with Israel, the Syrians are sure that Israel will give back the Golan Heights, and even Lake Kineret.

But what difference does it make whether Syria demands the Golan Heights before negotiations or during them?

This is indeed a big discovery. Media have long reported that Iran is demanding the return its nuclear stockpiles from Syria.

The real question is, how did spy agencies miss the tons of uranium rods produced for Syria by North Korea and Iran?

Whoever will be the leader, an Islamist alliance between Iran, Turkey, and Syria is in works.  Saudi king Abdullah’s recent visit to Syria suggests that the Sunni kingdom is considering joining the alliance.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia, formerly close US allies, are drifting toward Islamist geopolitics. Iran, too, used to be a major American ally.

If that sounds illiberal, consider that Israel sentenced a Jewish girl, Tanya Soskina, to a similar prison term for drawing a cartoon depicting Muhammad as a pig. During Sharon’s regime, voicing opposition to the Gush Katif disengagement was a crime punishable by jail.

Syria does not need aircraft for intelligence purposes: it cannot overfly Israel or the US-controlled Iraq.

Rather, the non-offensive version of the MiG31-E is used for intercepting cruise missiles. Money for the jets comes from Iran, which is probably the end user of the MiGs.

Syria’s policy is a repeat of its actions in Lebanon in the 1990s, multiplied by Assad Jr’s adventurism. When Israel scaled back her military effort in Lebanon, Syria immediately stepped in to occupy the power vacuum. Just as in Iraq today, Syria acted in cooperation with Iran.

Young Assad converted Hezbollah from a religious fundamentalist organization into a Lebanese nationalist one, and similarly reoriented Iraqi Al Qaeda.

After America created a power vacuum in Iraq, it was foolish to hope that the country would be left alone.

The Iranian ayatollahs have a theological problem with Al Qaeda, and also detest its radicalism, but they cooperate with it through the Syrians to undermine the US-propped regime in Iraq.

It seems like the American sanctions are having little effect on the three countries.

If Israel agrees to abandon the Golan in a peace deal with Syria, the situation will become similar to that of the West Bank: Israel will position itself as an admitted occupier who must relinquish the occupied lands, no questions asked.

Israel-the-occupier cannot demand any concessions from Syria in order to return the land. In any case, Syria’s promises to part with Iran and avoid major militarization would be hollow, and could be renounced at any moment.

The sanctions were renewed because of alleged Syrian influence on Lebanese democracy. The hypocrisy is breathtaking: just months ago, America and Saudi Arabia poured billions into the Lebanese elections.

Should Israel impose sanctions on Obama for supporting Kadima against Likud?

We expect Obama to press Israel to commit to ceding the Golan Heights to Syria.

The Hariri murder trial is stalled, Syria has refused to extradite the suspects, and a Lebanese court has released the conspirators.

Obama posed initially as a person of high ideals, but has now switched to the profile of a realpolitiking cynic willing to abandon all moral principles for the chance to negotiate with the world’s worst dictators.

The democratic president respects Syria’s brutal dictator, especially because they have a mutual interest in humbling Israel.

Abandoning the Golan Heights is the only basis for such talks.

A normal state would offer Syria peace in return for not bombing Damascus.

In order to justify its regional military expansion, Iran must preserve the Arab conflict with Israel.

Why cede the Heights, then?

We disagree with the Pentagon’s assessment that the Russians will deliver the MIG-31 export version to Syria very soon. The 2007 deal was not huge, the Russians had not exported that model before, and it is reportedly unstable. And they prefer using the threat of supplying the jets to Syria as leverage with Israel and the United States.

Despite the Pentagon’s assessment, the Senate still refuses to allow F/A-22 sales to Israel, which are a must if we are to restore Israeli air dominance in case of MIG-31E sales to Syria.

Days before leaving the office, Olmert apparently authorized a leak to German magazine Neue Zuercher Zeitung. According to the report, Mossad and CIA did not even suspect the Syrian nuclear program. Iranian turncoat general Ali Reza Ashari told the Americans of the Iranian-funded reactor in Syria just months before the reactor would have become operative. It took Israel months to verify the information and launch a commando raid. If not for Ashari, Syria would have owned a plutonium bomb by now.

A detail from us: despite the clear and present danger, Ehud Barak only agreed to attack the reactor after the Americans intercepted a North Korean ship with uranium rods bound for Syria.

Weeks ago, Iran had already loaded its plutonium-producing Bushehr reactor with Russian uranium rods. Syria poses as Israeli peace partner.

The problem is that the Syrians want not only the Golan Heights—which we rightly annexed after winning the three wars they launched against us—but also a small area beyond the international border, which they occupied in 1948, during the War of Independence, when we were weak. That small area “incidentally” touches the shore of Lake Kineret, which would give Syria water rights to half of our only significant aquifer.

Negotiations provoke. Now the Syrians will adopt increasingly militant rhetoric in order to get the most out of Israel and Obama.

The Egyptians and Saudis are trying to mediate with Iran through Syria.

The meeting actually took place with a Syrian opposition figure. Obama revels in the US State Department’s traditional delusion that they can change regimes to their liking. Likewise, in Iran the US supports the supposedly moderate Khatami, who is actually the most fundamentalist Shiite in the Iranian government, in charge of Shia conversion efforts in Africa and the Middle East, and a supporter of Iran’s nuclear program.

Assad also said that he can sign a peace treaty with Israel but cannot guarantee normalization unless Israel resolves her conflicts with all other Muslim countries. That also makes sense, as for example Israeli-Egyptian relations remain deeply hostile after thirty years of formal peace.

Assad seems to desire rapprochement with the Israeli-Egyptian-American axis, but is deeply wary of Iran’s reaction and that of the Arab world in general. At the Riyadh talks, Mubarak will try to assuage his fears.

Israeli-Palestinian peace, at least a real one, is impossible while there is a state of belligerence with Syria, and while it continues to support Palestinian terrorists.

Assad’s policy is this: Israel cedes the Golan Heights without a peace treaty, then Syria undertakes to maybe cut its support for Hamas, which offers a way to Israeli-Palestinian peace (unlikely), and only then would Syria entertain Israeli peace overtures. In short, Syria wants the Golan Heights, but not peace.

Just as two decades ago, the American administration prods us to capitulate to the defeated Syrian aggressor. To that end, American diplomatic representatives humiliatingly visited Syria (rather than vice versa) and pledged Israeli compliance.

Assad would love to gain international legitimacy by being courted by America, but there is little that America can do for him. Israeli support for holding the Golan Heights is universal: three generations have gotten used to thinking of the mountains as Jewish, as indeed the biblical Bashan is. Hatred of Syrians, our 4,000-year enemies, seems built into Jews. A severe drought makes Syrian access to Lake Kineret still more problematic. No Israeli government can cede the Golan Heights in the near future—though as the Sinai and Gush Katif examples show, things change here for the worse very quickly.

America cannot deliver Lebanon to Syria, and no way would Assad refuse the Greater Syria notion. Indeed, America will be clashing with Syria on Lebanon, if only diplomatically.

Syrians also wants weapons, maybe for no reason. That desire pushes them toward the Russians for supply and toward the Iranians for financing. America can neither provide Syria with weapons, nor with military aid.

Syria cannot abandon its support for Hamas, as it brings Assad serious stature vis-a-vis Mubarak, who is troubled by Gaza.

America cannot offer Syria any significant economic aid before it signs a peace treaty with Israel, which will not happen soon, and Assad cannot suspend his Russian and Iranian relations for remote promises from America.

Assad needs direct US involvement in order to whitewash himself from a terrorist into legitimate politician.
The Syrian does not ask “merely” for the Golan Heights, but for the area beyond the international border which Syria occupied in 1948: a beach strip of Lake Kineret which would give Syria half of Israel’s only aquifer.
And it is clearly a huge concession for Syria, defeated in three wars with Israel, to grant us peace.

There is a much cheaper way of achieving peace with Syria than giving our four-thousand-year enemy the Golan Heights: keep bombing Damascus until Assad signs whatever we tell him.

The Syrian dictator loves talking to the US; the talks bring him international legitimacy and require nothing in return.

At the dinner with prime minister Erdogan, the Turkish anti-Semite brought Olmert’s grandchildren Hanukkah’s treats, and the spineless Israeli accepted them.

Then Erdogan offered to bring in the Syrian foreign minister, who would fly from Damascus for direct talks with Olmert. Apparently, the Syrian refused. But the Israeli prime minister was ready to engage in diplomatically demeaning talks with a foreign minister. According to protocol, a prime minister only speaks to a foreign minister when the later visits the former’s country.

During Hanukkah, when Jews celebrate our victory over the Syrians, Olmert sought to surrender the Golan Heights and Kineret to them.

Syria has also beefed up its chemical weapons facilities.

Last week, police interrogated Olmert for the fifteenth time about silly allegations. Instead, the entire government should be tried for treason for refusing to bomb Syria into the Stone Age.

Syria is unlikely to use poison gases against Israel for fear of retaliation. Why then, manufacture chemical weapons? For no reason, just for the fun of having them. Likewise, during the cold war America and Russia kept chemical stockpiles, though both countries’ military doctrines advised against using them.

The Israeli establishment welcomes the rapprochement of Golani Druzes with Syrians to establish facts on the ground before transferring the Golan Heights to Syria.

Amos is lying, as usual. Since 1967, Syria has been afraid to move a finger against Israel, and it is completely impossible that Syria would launch its thousands of mid-range missiles at Israel, and risk provoking a devastating response.

Jews consider it normal when someone shoots at them, and sigh with relief when it’s not an official agent. Instead, Lebanon and Syria should be held fully responsible for whatever happens there, for every attack that originates on their territory.

Assad again hinted at his readiness to switch from Iran to the United States as a sponsor.

On the surface, the Kineret shore issue is merely about a few hundred meters of border. In reality, access to Lake Kineret gives Syria marine rights to half of Israel’s only significant aquifer. More than that, the demand is humiliating: the 1922 international border put Syria away from the lake. Syria occupied the seashore during the devastating 1948 War of Independence. So, after losing three wars with Israel, Syria demands that Jews agree to Syrian occupation of Israeli territory, the lake shore. Jews cannot annex the Golan Heights, but Syria can annex the shore.

It must be a high treason for Israeli negotiators even to listen to such demands.

What is expected of Syria? Assad will not come out talking about his military nuclear program. At most, Syria would offer a laughable explanation for the  uranium traces in its destroyed nuclear site—something like its earlier statement that Israelis purposely contaminated the site with fissionable material. Presumably, at that point the US will apply sanctions and further isolate Syria, leaving it with Iran as its only partner.

Barack Obama might prefer negotiations with Syria. His secretary of state Clinton had already met with Assad despite the official US policy of isolating his regime.

On a positive note, any international confrontation with Syria freezes the Syrian-Israeli peace talks, which would cost Israel the Golan Heights and half of Lake Kineret, her only significant water source.

Now the funny thing: suppose Israel gives the Golan Heights to Syria in return for a piece of paper called a “peace treaty.” A week later, Syria resumes its nuclear program, whose only target is Israel. Jews would not violate the ethereal peace treaty. Syria, then, gets both the Golan Heights and the nuclear bomb to become the Great Syria.