For months, our government have been saying that it holds Lebanon responsible for all actions by terrorist groups because Hezbollah is now a part of the government. Where is the response now? Why have government buildings in Beirut still not been flattened?

How many rocket-launching sites and weapons stores might Hezbollah have that we do not know of? A few dozen, perhaps. Add a hundred locations inside villages that we might find it difficult to bomb. We’re talking a few hundred rockets that could be launched before they were destroyed. And those are low-yield rockets, which can damage buildings but not flatten blocks.

But Hezbollah understands that Israel would use massive attacks as a pretext to retaliate against Lebanon and try to oust Hezbollah from its hard-won political position. So it makes little sense to risk such losses to help the ayatollahs.

And so it would be silly for Hezbollah to wait for a possible showdown with Iran. Instead, it makes sense to attack Israel now with rockets, thus starting a controversial regional war to draw attention away from Iran, making possible a negotiated political settlement for Hezbollah to stay in power.

Contrary to widespread expectations, the tribunal has not yet charged any Syrian official with the murder, though it was created specifically to punish Assad for his blatant intrusion into Lebanese affairs. This push for exoneration could only have come from the White House, which used Assad as a mediator in its talks with Iran. Washington’s power over the ICC is also evident from the fact that the Obama administration has promised Gadhafi that the ICC charges against him will be revoked if he abandons power. Instead of the tool of international justice, the ICC is mostly used for blackmail.

Obama’s cozy relations with Syria are not affected even by the fact that Assad is the lynchpin of international heroin trade.

Lebanese claims are not without merit: the economic maritime area is not demarcated between our countries, and the bilateral demarcation agreements with Cyprus are irrelevant. Lebanese claims in the UN will automatically be backed by the Muslim majority.

Gas drilling platforms in the sea will be easy targets for Hezbollah attacks.

After Obama’s massive failures in Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, Hezbollah no longer felt the need to pretend to comply with his wishes. Lebanon now has a government with a Hezbollah majority. The US, however, cannot stop its aid to Lebanon, at least the non-military part. And significant arms deliveries from the previous military aid will now fall to Hezbollah.

America faces a similar problem in Egypt, which remains a recipient of $1.2 billion in aid despite its intense hostility toward the US and Israel. Likewise the PA continues to receive US and Israeli aid despite the Fatah-Hamas unity deal.

This is curious. Judging by IDF’s experience in Lebanon, a thousand guerrillas are a formidable fighting force, capable of making an occupying army into sitting-duck targets. Granted, Bahrain is a small island with few places for guerrillas to hide. But Hezbollah proved unwilling to take even on the lackluster GCC forces, which are no match for the IDF.

The answer, we believe, lies in the fact that Hezbollah knows that IDF was never willing to take the necessary steps to eradicate the insurgents, accepting instead a level of accommodation with them.

Netanyahu practically invited the Arab protesters to break into Israel by promising that the troops will exercise restraint.

For three years, Hezbollah has refrained from taking revenge because of Israel’s threat to attack Lebanon in a cycle of vengeance. Now that Israel has shown extreme weakness with Egypt, Iran, and Hamas, Hezbollah feels free to strike. After five years of rearming, the terrorist group is more than ready for another war in Lebanon.

A delay of several months would allow Hezbollah to establish a pro-Iranian government in Lebanon. The move seems to be a part of Obama’s understanding with the ayatollahs. He did not prevent the dissolution of Hariri Jr’s government, and in fact signaled his approval for the Hezbollah government by promising US aid to the Lebanese army.