How many rocket-launching sites and weapons stores might Hezbollah have that we do not know of? A few dozen, perhaps. Add a hundred locations inside villages that we might find it difficult to bomb. We’re talking a few hundred rockets that could be launched before they were destroyed. And those are low-yield rockets, which can damage buildings but not flatten blocks.

But Hezbollah understands that Israel would use massive attacks as a pretext to retaliate against Lebanon and try to oust Hezbollah from its hard-won political position. So it makes little sense to risk such losses to help the ayatollahs.

And so it would be silly for Hezbollah to wait for a possible showdown with Iran. Instead, it makes sense to attack Israel now with rockets, thus starting a controversial regional war to draw attention away from Iran, making possible a negotiated political settlement for Hezbollah to stay in power.

Contrary to widespread expectations, the tribunal has not yet charged any Syrian official with the murder, though it was created specifically to punish Assad for his blatant intrusion into Lebanese affairs. This push for exoneration could only have come from the White House, which used Assad as a mediator in its talks with Iran. Washington’s power over the ICC is also evident from the fact that the Obama administration has promised Gadhafi that the ICC charges against him will be revoked if he abandons power. Instead of the tool of international justice, the ICC is mostly used for blackmail.

Obama’s cozy relations with Syria are not affected even by the fact that Assad is the lynchpin of international heroin trade.

This is curious. Judging by IDF’s experience in Lebanon, a thousand guerrillas are a formidable fighting force, capable of making an occupying army into sitting-duck targets. Granted, Bahrain is a small island with few places for guerrillas to hide. But Hezbollah proved unwilling to take even on the lackluster GCC forces, which are no match for the IDF.

The answer, we believe, lies in the fact that Hezbollah knows that IDF was never willing to take the necessary steps to eradicate the insurgents, accepting instead a level of accommodation with them.

For three years, Hezbollah has refrained from taking revenge because of Israel’s threat to attack Lebanon in a cycle of vengeance. Now that Israel has shown extreme weakness with Egypt, Iran, and Hamas, Hezbollah feels free to strike. After five years of rearming, the terrorist group is more than ready for another war in Lebanon.

A delay of several months would allow Hezbollah to establish a pro-Iranian government in Lebanon. The move seems to be a part of Obama’s understanding with the ayatollahs. He did not prevent the dissolution of Hariri Jr’s government, and in fact signaled his approval for the Hezbollah government by promising US aid to the Lebanese army.

So the West lost Hariri Sr in the assassination, and Hariri Jr in the dissolution of the impotent government whose crisis the United States and France provoked with their unnecessary tribunal.

Curiously, the billionaire Hariri is being replaced as the PM by another billionaire, Mikati. Which shows a bigger problem for the West: Hezbollah got sufficient financial sources among local businessmen and cannot be moderated through Syria. The West has now a short window of opportunity to befriend Hezbollah while it can act with relative independence from Iran. Failing to do so may result in a much stronger Hezbollah, Iran’s independent partner.

Hezbollah’s government has also inherited a Lebanese army beefed up by the US aid.

We reiterate our view that a Hezbollah coup is unlikely. Nasrallah knows that Israel would be only too happy to use that as a pretext to bomb his arsenal of 60,000 rockets.

More likely, the Lebanese government will follow the path of Fatah: a technically illegitimate government continues to operate as long as a new government cannot be formed.

Frightening Hezbollah out of attacking Israel would be a stupid reason for the exercises: maneuvers or no maneuvers, Hezbollah knows that Israel can easily defeat it. The terrorist group is transforming itself into a political force, and would not be eager to provoke Israeli reprisals against Lebanese voters.

IDF’s goal in the exercises was probably to force Hezbollah to expose its bunkers, which it actually did with the help of Iranian engineers who came immediately after the maneuvers to inspect Hezbollah’s defenses, as Debka reported.

The Iranians were guarded by Lebanese Army units. Such close cooperation between the US-funded Lebanese army and Iran is to be expected since Hariri surrendered to the ayatollahs.

That seems to confirm our analysis that Hezbollah aims to take over Lebanon by acting as a political force rather than as a terrorist organization. Otherwise, it would make no sense for Nasrallah to betray his operatives to a show of international justice.