Well-financed ultra-left organizations can change the voting pattern by bringing relatively large numbers of liberal expats to the voting booths.

But Netanyahu’s commitments might be weasel ones. The agreements require Palestinians to fight terrorism, which they won’t do. Besides the outposts, the commitments include doing something about illegal Arab construction, an obvious nod to the National Union.

The lesson is that however Israelis vote, the government and its programs remain the same.

Lieberman is trying to bind Netanyahu’s hands in negotiations with Avodah because Livni wants Avodah to join her in the opposition so that together they can create a meaningful bloc. Lieberman is obligated to Livni for the massive support he received from Kadima during the elections, enabling him to woo his voters from Likud so that Livni could beat Netanyahu.

If Likud MKs are so useless, why include them on the list? Because Bibi chose those who pose no threat to his leadership.

In terms of strategic vision, Moshe Yaalon would have made a better defense minister than Barak. In any event, the Defense Minister has very little influence on army matters, which are mostly controlled by the Chief of Staff.

The formation of a coalition with Avodah requires Netanyahu to expel the right-wing National Union from his government, which is the only fitting move for Bibi now that he has done away with Moshe Feiglin.

The National Union is sticking to its hardcore right-wing demands that the outposts be legalized. Western governments can do nothing against Israel if Netanyahu approves those hamlets, but he’s afraid of even nominal confrontation with them. But without the NU, Bibi cannot form his narrow coalition.

Bibi can bring Tzipi into the government, but then Peres could offer her prime ministry (she won the elections) and the right to form a coalition.

What major portfolios, then, can Netanyahu can offer Livni? He agreed to the crazy rotation scheme. It seems that Foreign Ministry is still up for grabs.

Netanyahu offered Livni the chance to head the Israeli negotiation team at the talks with the Palestinians. The post is offensively insignificant, but why is the right-wing Netanyahu conceding negotiations of national importance to his left-wing opponent?

Lieberman’s publicized campaign to gain the Foreign Ministry is highly suspicious. Regardless of his attempts to reshape himself into a supporter of a Palestinian state, he remains absolutely unacceptable to the Israeli leftist establishment, too right-wing to conduct peace negotiations. One wonders whether Lieberman was not erecting another straw man, just as he did with Justice Minister Friedman—this time to make Netanyahu embrace even Livni as Foreign Minister.

Netanyahu is still undecided whether he wants a narrow right-wing coalition or a dysfunctional government with his purported ideological opponents from Kadima.

As an apparent payback to Lieberman, the Olmert-Livni government approved his trademark welfare program for Russian immigrants.

On the positive side, it took Ariel Sharon to expel the Jews from Sinai, and then from Gush Katif. Weaklings like Tzipi or Bibi won’t be able to overcome massive resistance to eviction.

Netanyahu can reject their ultimatum and work to bring Avodah or Kadima into the coalition. Then the right-wingers would sit in opposition and watch the peace process unfold.

On the bright side, Netanyahu offered the Settlement Authority to the National Union bloc. The move is largely symbolic, as the NU would still need the Defense Ministry’s approval for beefing up outposts and settlement construction.