A few months ago we argued against the reports that Assad might launch regional war if Syria were attacked by Turkey. We believe that analysis was correct, because at that time Assad was rational. By now, he is probably not.
Thus his reported threat to annihilate Tel Aviv if the UNSC condemns his regime to Gadhafi’s fate must be taken seriously. Israel cannot intercept the 1,600 medium-range missiles that Syria has at its disposal. We could destroy some of them, but hundreds will remain for a massive strike. Recall that Syrian SCUDs have chemical and biological warheads.
At this point, Assad does not fear whatever retaliation Israel would inflict on Damascus, because the UNSC resolution means that he is likely on his way out, anyway.
We gain nothing by replacing the hostile but sensible Assad with the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria.