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Just a few days after Israel agreed to extradite to the US a Jew who had defended his neighborhood against black hooligans, his actions were amply vindicated. On the anniversary of the ‘Night of Shattered Glass,’ local anti-Semites torched cars in Brooklyn and spray-painted swastikas.

This happened in the country most friendly to Israel and allegedly devoid of Nazi-style anti-semitism.

There has been much analysis of Nasrallah’s speech to his commanders a week ago detailing his plan to launch 10,000 rockets at Israel and capture enclaves in Galilee. That is not realistic.

How many rocket-launching sites and weapons stores might Hezbollah have that we do not know of? A few dozen, perhaps. Add a hundred locations inside villages that we might find it difficult to bomb. We’re talking a few hundred rockets that could be launched before they were destroyed. And those are low-yield rockets, which can damage buildings but not flatten blocks.

But Hezbollah understands that Israel would use massive attacks as a pretext to retaliate against Lebanon and try to oust Hezbollah from its hard-won political position. So it makes little sense to risk such losses to help the ayatollahs.

Explosion at military base in IranExplosions at Amir al Momenin military base in Iran took life of the godfather of their missile program. Yes, it was a great operation tactically, but what about its strategic implications?

Barak openly praised the operation, thus breaking a major taboo. There was doubt among the Iranians about which country was behind the explosion, and Barak’s words led the blame and retaliation to Israel’s doorstep.

Targeting individuals is a poor strategy at this stage. Assassinations won’t stop the Iranian nuclear program, but they create the illusion that an all-out attack would be superfluous.

November 2011
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