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Gadhafi loyalists keep fighting the rebels all the way to Tripoli. Gadhafi’s resurgence is fueled by militant Toureg tribe, a traditional ally of whoever pays cash, including Al Qaeda.

After fighting Gadhafi for six months and spending billions to install a lame government in Tripoli, NATO failed to spend a few billion dollars to bribe the Touregs away from Gadhafi and Al Qaeda in the Maghreb.

Curiously, Al Qaeda works on both sides: its past affiliates rule Tripoli on behalf of the rebels and NATO, while its other personnel smuggle weapons and drugs with Touregs’ help.

Touregs in Lybia

During the Soviet-Afghanistan war, the CIA supplied Stinger missiles to the mujaheddin. This caused significant controversy, and many analysts were concerned that the missiles would be turned against Western targets. Surprisingly, the mujaheddin only attacked Soviet helicopters. By now, the unused Stingers supplied to Afghanistan are unusable.

But Gazans were able to procure Russian-made SA-24 anti-aircraft missiles from the NATO-supported Libyan rebels. A half-empty cache of those was recently discovered by the Egyptians.

Besides the danger posed to helicopters by the SA-24 missiles, the weapons shipment greatly endangers Israeli Navy ships, as it includes Russian MDM-5 bottom mines.

Israeli Dolphin-class submarineDebka has published an astonishing revalation: the White House is pushing Israel to sink Iranian submarines with her own Dolphin-class subs. As a guarantee, Obama even agreed to sell Israel a few GBU-37 bunker-busters.

The idea is suicidal. Iran wouldn’t launch its missiles against Israel in retaliation, but would certainly attack Israel’s soft underbelly of foreign Jewish targets. Palestinian terrorists will be instructed to renew attacks in Israel. And in the end, sinking a vessel or two wouldn’t reverse Iranian policy; if anything, it would strengthen IRGC’s resolve to achieve military superiority over Israel, if not in quality than in numbers.

We believe that Obama views Israel as an expendable spy, a pawn in his game with Iran. After Israel has started a silly conflict, Obama imagines he would be able to talk to the Iranians. But the Iranians would take a limited strike as a signal that the West is ready for war, and would steel their resolve rather than run to negotiate.

An Israeli strike on Iranian vessels in the Red Sea would also amount to clearing the water there for Egypt’s benefit. Washington wants to show the Muslim Brotherhood that it can bring even Jews into their service.

October 2011
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