As we expected, Israel has again agreed to violate the Camp David peace treaty by allowing Egyptian military deployment in Sinai. The violation is being kept informal—that is, the treaty is not being amended—which is actually the worst way of going about this because it establishes a precedent for continual violation.

And it will solve nothing. Reports indicate that Egypt is deploying a mere 1,000 soldiers. The purpose of keeping the force so small is to mollify public opinion, and the real number of troops is probably a few times higher. Nevertheless, it will not be enough. Al Takfir alone has mustered some 200 gunmen for operations, and certainly can bring along many more. Bedouin terrorists are incredibly more numerous.

As usual, the Egyptian government is creating an appearance of fighting terrorism without actually doing so. Terrorist groups will retreat before the army, but they will come back soon after the soldiers return to their barracks.

Obama’s strategy of gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan will prove a major fiasco. A similar strategy worked in Iraq for specific reasons:

- local tribes were bribed into fighting Islamist militias
- Iraq’s powerful neighbor Iran desisted from providing major support to the insurgents in order to allow the Americans to withdraw
- terrorist groups abstained from escalation due to the lack of external support and the scarcity of their own resources
- Iraq quickly reestablished a strong security apparatus
- the US left about a third of its war-time personnel in Iraq in non-combat capacities
And everyone understands that the lull in terrorism is temporary, and that the frequency of attacks belies the notion that stable government is possible.

In Afghanistan, the opposite is true. NATO enjoys very little support among the tribal federations, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are providing resources to the Taliban, and terrorist attacks are growing in frequency and sophistication. The Taliban has excellent bases in Pakistan and sufficient funding from drug production. Karzai’s security forces are weak, and the US will not need to maintain large air bases after withdrawal.

After US forces go home, larger chunks of Afghanistan will fall to the Taliban and warlords, and more attacks will take place in Kabul.