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The International Criminal Court has published the names of four suspects indicted in Hariri’s assassination. All of them belong to Hezbollah.

Contrary to widespread expectations, the tribunal has not yet charged any Syrian official with the murder, though it was created specifically to punish Assad for his blatant intrusion into Lebanese affairs. This push for exoneration could only have come from the White House, which used Assad as a mediator in its talks with Iran. Washington’s power over the ICC is also evident from the fact that the Obama administration has promised Gadhafi that the ICC charges against him will be revoked if he abandons power. Instead of the tool of international justice, the ICC is mostly used for blackmail.

Obama’s cozy relations with Syria are not affected even by the fact that Assad is the lynchpin of international heroin trade.

Israel and the newly founded state of South Sudan have exchanged embassies. This symbolic gesture marks the culmination of more than a decade of extensive clandestine support Israel provided for Sudanese insurgents, who in turn helped us against Al Qaeda and Iranian smuggling networks there. This support was an open secret in Sudan. During the independence celebrations, South Sudanese waved Israeli flags.

South Sudanese celebrate independence

El ArishNow that the Egyptians have reported the story of the El Arish assault, it looks strange. The attackers were dressed in Al Qaeda-style black uniforms, but their affiliation is otherwise unknown.

Al Qaeda cells in Sinai are too minuscule to have mustered the 150 gunmen who assaulted El Arish. Their arsenal was too formidable even for the Salafist cousins of Al Qaeda: they were armed with large numbers of RPGs, rocket launchers, and heavy machine guns.

Al Qaeda has never before shown any interest in the Egyptian-Israeli pipeline, which was the main target in El Arish. Overall, it seems that the Muslim Brotherhood and its Hamas branch staged a false-flag attack. The pipeline, we now understand, is completely defenseless against this type of concentrated attack, and in our estimation there is no chance of reestablishing gas supply from Egypt to Israel.

Meanwhile, a 1,000-strong garrison of US and Canadian marines stationed ten miles from El Arish (in accordance with the Camp David accords), made no attempt to intervene.

Lawlessness in Sinai is strategically good for Israel. After Egypt loses the peninsula to Islamists and Bedouins, we can re-acquire it.

July 2011
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