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Three to five years ago, Israel could have welcomed nuclear Iran and sided with it against a much more dangerous threat – Egypt. Years of Israeli threats pushed Iran to build a strong counter-threat which today is not easy to defuse.

Iran has convinced Hezbollah to start a proxy war with Israel. Syria might be ready to sustain some damage in the war with Israel under the correct assumption that Jews won’t carpet-bomb Damascus. Launching its thousand SCUD missiles at Israeli targets is not a bad deal for Syria, assured that the UN would block any massive Israeli retaliation. Hamas needs the escalation to discredit Fatah and take power in the West Bank. In Iraq, pro-Iranian militias amassed enough power to stage a coup after American withdrawal.

When Iran starts producing nuclear bombs, Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas, and Sadr Brigades will be assured of an effective shield which would stop any large-scale counterattack by Israel or the United States.

It is not impossible that nuclear capability would spell Iran’s moderation as a member of the world’s elite military club. Looking at the mind-boggling rate at which Iran introduces new conventional weapons, that does not seem a likely short-term forecast. More probably, Iran’s nuclear capability would trigger conventional proxy wars throughout the Middle East.

At this critical time, Israeli leaders pose false problems for the attacks, such as TOR-1M and possibly S-300 SAM’s in Iran. As Olmert remarked correctly, a thousand Tomahawks solves the problem. SAM’s cannot tell real from fake targets apart: it is a standard military approach to saturate air defenses with large drones and dummy missiles before engaging the real attack forces.

Israeli attack on Iran would not be very effective in terminating its nuclear program, but will achieve a more important short-term objective: defuse the coming proxy wars.

Wikileaks published a story about a group of murderers among the US troops in Afghanistan. These murderers formed a ‘kill team’ and shot random civilians for fun. The ringleader committed similar crimes during his tour in Iraq.

Wikileaks normally does a great job of exposing governments’ crimes and immorality. But some stories, this one included, run against national security goals. Hardly anyone in the West cares about Afghani militias murdering civilians in great numbers. Indeed, the American puppet Karzai brought bloody criminals from among the Mujahedeen into his government. So the story guarantees that highly disproportionate blame will fall on the US troops, and that there will be increased hatred and non-cooperation.

The murderers were properly prosecuted at the time the story was leaked. It thus served not justice, but only propaganda.

It is incredible that the US intelligence services are so much afraid of liberals that they cannot shut down a Web site which endangers American troops on the ground.

September 2010
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