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French foreign minister declared war with Iran over its nuclear program a viable option. The new French government remains unusually close to the US position.
Iran threatened retaliating against Israel with 600 missiles if attacked, in addition to launching missiles against US bases in Iraq. Though Patriot and Arrow missile defense systems are perfectly capable of intercepting Iran’s primitive Shihab-3 missiles, Israel lacks the batteries to intercept hundreds of missiles simultaneously. Israel didn’t sufficiently develop anti-missile artillery but relies on hyper-expensive American anti-missile missiles. Israel lost nuclear credibility which would otherwise prevent Iran from massively retaliating against Israeli cities.
Israel will have to attack simultaneously dozens of locations inside Iran to knock out most of Iranian missile batteries. A task of that magnitude is implausible without direct American involvement.
A short, successful Israeli war on Iran remains the best chance for US Republicans to win the next year’s presidential race. Israeli leftists will hope to defeat Likud in the upcoming elections by allowing Olmert to attack Iran. On other hand, Israeli left politicians would love to see Iran going nuclear in order to justify ultra-defeatist policies of abandoning Judea and Samaria and partitioning Jerusalem.

London tabloid Sunday Times reported that Israeli commandos on the ground in Syria directed the bombing raid which destroyed Syrian underground installation housing North Korean nuclear equipment and possibly a nuclear warhead.
IDF buildup on the Golan Heights was a diversion. International negotiations with North Korea over dismantling its nuclear program are frozen apparently to clarify the details of North Korea’s nuclear cooperation with Syria.
Foreign newspapers publish the reports first because Israeli media are bound by censorship. Olmert trumpets Israeli successful attack on Syria by staging media leaks. He has a good reason to be proud.

Hamas leaders boosted their personal security, warned of Israel plans to assassinate them with Fatah’s help. Hamas, however, is Israel’s best chance for security in the Palestinian-settled areas. Non-conformist Hamas offers Israel the excellent reason to abandon peace process.

IDF abandoned its previous silence and demanded that France 2 channel delivers the entire footage of the purported shooting of a 12-year Palestinian. The myth of IDF killing al Dura in Gaza made headlines in the year 2000 and reverberates among Muslims.
IDF commission of inquiry concluded soon after the event that IDF soldiers could not possibly shoot the young Arab, and he was killed by the Palestinians who staged the event. Then-prime minister Barak refused to publicize the IDF’s findings.

Israeli leftists set up One Home charity that offers to buy houses from Jewish villagers who happen to live outside of the proposed separation barrier. Meretz seeks to buy houses on the cheap and either get reimbursed by Arab and European donors of the peace process or profitably resell the houses if the security barrier’s route is changed to include them into Israel.
Israeli Supreme Court routinely orders dismantling the barrier when it cuts through illegal Palestinian villages but is unconcerned that the barrier cuts off tens of thousands of Jewish houses in the existing villages.

After Israeli court ruled that Disengagement law which bans the Jews from their demolished villages has expired, Israeli government and IDF continue to ban the Jews from Homesh ostensibly for security reasons.
When Jews refused to heed IDF’s warnings and kept coming to Homesh, Israeli security arranged for a few Palestinian terror groups to issue threats against Homesh residents. Palestinians never significantly threatened Homesh activists, and the current threats came too handily to be true.
Israeli security similarly commissioned Arab terrorists for murders of Meir and Binyamin Kahane, and probably for other murders of Jewish activists.

Besides building non-democratic alliances with tribal leaders, US Army and CIA managed rapprochement with Baathist Islamic Army. Islamic Army fought Al Qaeda in Iraq and now declared Iran the major threat to Iraq’s stability. While Iran threatens to attack US bases in Iraq in case a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, the US seems to painstakingly create a real threat to Iran in Iraq. Insurgents like the Islamic Army can attack Iraq’s Shiite population and conduct cross-border raids against Iran, putting Iran on hopeless defensive against American-sponsored terrorists.

US will assist Jordan in developing civilian nuclear reactors. Jordan is not expected to gain expertise necessary to produce nuclear weapons.

September 2007
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