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Iran: If not now, then when?

Iran surprised everyone by moving its entire stock of low-enriched uranium from underground to a 20% enrichment facility. Unless, that is, Iran fooled IAEA inspectors with half-empty containers.

It is possible that Iran’s brazen defiance is rooted in its certainty that Israel won’t attack even under the best imaginable circumstances. Absent an attack now, Iran would reasonably feel safe in proceeding to enrich its uranium stocks to 80% and weaponize them.

But there is yet another possibility. As we suggested yesterday, Iran and Syria may be planning a preemptive strike on Israel; not a devastating strike, but sufficient to deter Israel from attacking Iran. In that case, Iran would expose its uranium stocks to provoke an Israeli attack against the compound—thickly defended with SAM batteries—and then counterstrike.

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