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In for a good war

French foreign minister declared war with Iran over its nuclear program a viable option. The new French government remains unusually close to the US position.
Iran threatened retaliating against Israel with 600 missiles if attacked, in addition to launching missiles against US bases in Iraq. Though Patriot and Arrow missile defense systems are perfectly capable of intercepting Iran’s primitive Shihab-3 missiles, Israel lacks the batteries to intercept hundreds of missiles simultaneously. Israel didn’t sufficiently develop anti-missile artillery but relies on hyper-expensive American anti-missile missiles. Israel lost nuclear credibility which would otherwise prevent Iran from massively retaliating against Israeli cities.
Israel will have to attack simultaneously dozens of locations inside Iran to knock out most of Iranian missile batteries. A task of that magnitude is implausible without direct American involvement.
A short, successful Israeli war on Iran remains the best chance for US Republicans to win the next year’s presidential race. Israeli leftists will hope to defeat Likud in the upcoming elections by allowing Olmert to attack Iran. On other hand, Israeli left politicians would love to see Iran going nuclear in order to justify ultra-defeatist policies of abandoning Judea and Samaria and partitioning Jerusalem.

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