Israeli media picked up on reports by several foreign newspapers that Hezbollah is preparing for war with Israel. Allegedly, Israel is planning to attack Hezbollah before attacking Iran, in order to prevent a rain of 60,000 rockets from Lebanon.
Such a move would be stupid on Israel’s part. Hezbollah has firmly entered the political process in Lebanon, and wouldn’t invite a massive retaliation against its constituency. Iran’s hold on Hezbollah is insufficient to push it into a major war. The Lebanese slowly forgave Hezbollah for the 2006 war on the presumption that Israel acted unexpectedly, but a new, larger war would greatly damage Hezbollah’s electoral support.
If Hezbollah starts firing, Israel can react within hours, so there is no need to preempt. It is possible that these rumors are being disseminated by Israel to keep Hezbollah out of our quarrel with Iran; or Netanyahu and Barak might indeed be bent on proving themselves superior to Olmert and Peres.
