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Hezbollah is unlikely to start an all-out war

There has been much analysis of Nasrallah’s speech to his commanders a week ago detailing his plan to launch 10,000 rockets at Israel and capture enclaves in Galilee. That is not realistic.

How many rocket-launching sites and weapons stores might Hezbollah have that we do not know of? A few dozen, perhaps. Add a hundred locations inside villages that we might find it difficult to bomb. We’re talking a few hundred rockets that could be launched before they were destroyed. And those are low-yield rockets, which can damage buildings but not flatten blocks.

But Hezbollah understands that Israel would use massive attacks as a pretext to retaliate against Lebanon and try to oust Hezbollah from its hard-won political position. So it makes little sense to risk such losses to help the ayatollahs.

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Past coverage: Hezbollah
05.11 Talk of Iranian war forces Hezbollah to preempt
31.07 ICC exonerates Syria?
06.06 Just how worthless is Hezbollah?
22.04 Israeli deterrence eroded in Lebanon
15.03 Who supports Hezbollah in the Hague?
25.01 Lebanon: how the West lost
12.01 The West Bank scenario unfolds in Lebanon
23.12 You know that I know that you know
17.12 Hezbollah aims higher
16.12 Hezbollah has to take over Lebanon