Samson Blinded: A Machiavellian Perspective on the Middle East Conflict
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Israel lost Lebanon because of restraint toward Arab civilians

Israel must destroy the Islamic terrorists' support base

Persecute the families of Palestinian terrorists

Palestinian suicide bombers will not volunteer if their families are persecuted and their neighbors driven into exile. Shahedeen, righteous martyrs—Islamic suicide bombers—believe the Saudis will take care of their families and everyone will respect them. Israel should destroy that belief by destroying the homes their families build, even in the future, or putting them in Israeli jails. These Palestinians are not innocent. Incitement is a crime. Even if they do not incite the shahedeen, they are nevertheless an important part of the Palestinian bombers’ decision and should be prosecuted by Israel regardless of their guilt. That Israeli approach would affect the dangerous solitary Palestinian bombers and other hard-to-detect small groups. Islamic terrorists would die knowing they subjected their relatives to punishment, even if they themselves do not fear death. Recruiting orphans for anti-Israeli suicide missions is not easy in the Muslim environment of large families. Palestinians who fear exile or prison are more likely to inform on Islamic terrorists and suspicious activity in general.

There is no danger of Israel punishing the innocent. Truth serum will show Israeli interrogators if the Palestinian family is ignorant, and Israelis can set them free—but watch and not allow to receive benefits.

Israel lost Lebanon and Russia - Afghanistan because of restraint toward civilians

No one drew the right conclusions from Israel’s failure in Lebanon and the Soviet Union’s in Afghanistan.[10] These two cases of successful defensive jihad against Jews and Christians after centuries of Muslim impotence have the same cause: the unwillingness of the stronger power to wage normal war, which let defenders hide among the civilians and strike Israel and the USSR at leisure. The only way to fight a war is brutally. The choice is not between humaneness and cruelty but between Israel waging war and surrendering to Arabs. Starting a war without being prepared to fight it is a recipe for Israeli failure, emboldening jihadi.

Destroy the Islamic terrorists’ support base

In war, commanders often aim to destroy not enemy troops but their support: logistics and industry. When they do, enemy armies disintegrate without a bloody frontal assault. Likewise, successful anti-terrorist campaigns aim at eradicating support: drug cartels in Latin America, Communists in Greece and Malaysia, partisans in World War II Russia. Sharon’s tactics in Gaza, a rare example of proper policy, relied on stamping out popular support for Palestinian terrorists, but Israel now mistakenly fights the Islamic terrorists themselves. That tactic is valid in the worst-case scenario, where a lot of independent Islamic terrorists threaten Israel. To overcome them is almost impossible for Israel: most terrorists acts against Israel require only a few Islamic agents, and there are always Muslim newcomers. But luckily Israel today deals with extended Islamic terrorist organizations, relying heavily on various forms of support from Muslims. Even in the case of small or secretive groups, amateurish but not easily detected, an active Israeli policy makes Islamic terrorists nervous, and they err, letting the Israeli security services at them. Israel must transform Islamic terrorists from folk heroes into fugitives on the run with nowhere to go because no one dares offer them shelter and support for fear of Israel.

The availability of Palestinian suicide bombers to attack Israel depends on the Muslims' unflagging trust in the leaders and the anti-Israeli cause. Usrael should flood media with presentations of bin Laden as an uneducated simpleton under the heel of Al-Zawahiri. Disseminate Jewish jokes about him. Claim him as an Israeli agent-provocateur. Israel can seed distrust with subtle techniques of neurolinguistic programming, in many respects the most effective anti-terror measure available to Israel. Once Israel ruptures the coherence of the Islamic terrorists’ support base, nothing would preclude Arab cynicism from encompassing the Islamic terrorists.

Hamas in Palestine, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, fields a large network of social services to assure popular support among Arabs. Israel should destroy their camps and facilities. Their Arab clients hate Israel anyway. They would not be grateful to Hamas either.

[10] The Afghan mujahedeen troops were peasants, serving part-time. Even though the Soviet Army was cruel in many cases, it refrained from attacking villages filled with decommissioned Muslim fighters.