Temporary moderate | Muslim Brotherhood takes power in militarized Egypt

Temporary moderate

The absence of war between Israel and Egypt for the last thirty years is unrelated to the peace treaty. Egyptian society has changed, and the change began before the 1973 war. Nasser prepared for his wars openly and disregarded casualties; Sadat prepared clandestinely and was so concerned with Egyptian losses that he refused to bomb the Israeli troops who drove on to Cairo and surrounded the Egyptian forces. Unlike Nasser, Sadat doubted that Egyptians would support a total war against Israel.

Nasser ruled over a poor country seething with residual discontent from colonial and monarchic times. His people saw few economic prospects and readily channeled their energies into hatred. Nasser rallied them by trumpeting the dangerous and obnoxious Zionist enemy around the corner. The fear produced some bravery and made the masses stick together. Even so, the Egyptian army was unwarlike: the peasants, used to the lush scenery around the Nile, felt little attachment to the Sinai desert.

Consumerism changed the Egyptians. Today, city dwellers—those who really influence politics—dislike the Jews rather passively. Everyone thinks of paying off loans, buying something, and preserving their lifestyle. Egyptians don’t go to demonstrations for fear of losing a week’s income while in jail (the same goes for Israelis). While the Egyptian economy develops and banks push loans, they don’t care to attack Israel. If there were to be a tremendous downturn, the Egyptians, unable to pay off their loans, would revolt. Riots erupted in 1977 when Sadat increased the regulated price of sugar a half piastre, but now the government raises prices often and Egyptians are silent. Where people have a chance of economic development, they usually forgo militancy.

On other hand, a booming economy produces private sponsors. They not only prop up the few radicals financially, but legitimize them politically. The Muslim Brotherhood thus evolved from a fringe group of religious crackpots into a moderate, highly respected Islamic organization. The Muslim Brotherhood became the major opposition force in Egypt, and drew a lot of middle class citizens and youth. To them, the Muslim Brotherhood offered Egyptians an acceptable Islam-lite: hijab and occasional mosque attendance, but not jihad or war for a caliphate. The Muslim Brotherhood positions itself as a peaceful organization but it inculcates its members with Islamism, which drives them to Islamic Jihad in Egypt and Hamas in Gaza. Just as the Taliban could not refuse hospitality to bin Laden, so the Muslim Brotherhood cannot abandon the militant groups. The Brotherhood’s only concession to moderation is that it formally divests from the militant groups while maintaining ties with them; Hamas is one example. If a sharp-tongued demagogue arises from the Muslim Brotherhood, some Egyptians will abandon the group. Many, probably most, will radicalize in response to his calls. Still, they will not launch a total war against Israel, but rather will support the Palestinians, as the Iranian ayatollahs do. Weapons of mass destruction will make the difference; upon coming to power, the Muslim Brotherhood could take the risk in return for the realistic chance to wipe the Zionist state off the map.

The Egyptian government tightly controls the Muslim Brotherhood, and recently jailed more than a hundred leaders and confiscated their bank accounts. But the Brotherhood is too useful for the government to destroy. Sadat allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to return from the exile into which Nasser had forced tham, in order to counter the communists. The Brotherhood sucks votes from the opposition political parties and doubles as a scarecrow to discourage the US from pressing too hard for democratic elections in Egypt. Mubarak cracks on the Muslim Brotherhood now and then to remind them who is the boss. Mubarak, it seems, collaborated with bin Laden to woo Islamic Jihad away from attacking Egypt, encouraging the “US-first” approach. Playing with the devil is not easy; Hosni has the required skills, but he is old. His son Gamal Mubarak will be a strong ruler, but the slightest error can plunge Egypt into militant Islamism. Many Sunni Egyptians admire Nasrallah, a Shiite. The society’s curiosity about and approval of violent Islamism could at any moment give way to overt support. Egypt retains its militaristic backbone: it continuously upgrades its army with the newest American weapons, flirts with Russia, and runs a protective racket for Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.

Egypt is not an urgent problem for Israel. It’s just a very big problem.

temporary moderate

Danny the Admin 2007 September 09

Well, Ahmad, Jews had no problem coexisting with Arabs at first. Then came pogroms of 1920-30s and the war of 1948, initiated by Arabs who massacred also non-Zionist religious Jews.
Israeli relations with Germany are good for a technical reason that Germany is somewhat helpful. While I agree that some Jews shamefully embrace Germany, most are quite apprehensive of that state.
Jews also tried establishing good relations with Egypt – but Egyptian media spits anti-Israeli propaganda.
As for the Palestinian dispute, you apparently want Kashmir as Muslim territory rather than Hindu. We, too, want the Land of Israel to be a Jewish state. Thus we cannot allow Arabs to vote here.
We’d love to see some rapprochement with Muslims, but so far there are no signs of it.

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Danny the Admin 2007 September 11

Both Judaism and Islam teaches, an eye for an eye (I won’t dwell into rabbinical interpretation). The underlying idea is to stop violence with violence. Police don’t preach to criminals, but acts harshly. Violent suppression of violence is the only historically proven strategy, and it is sanctioned religiously.

I won’t argue about ” millions” Muslims killed in Bosnia. For all I know, the numbers are way lowers, and both sides were guilty of war crimes.

In 1948, Arabs fought Jews with artillery and some aircraft, not wood and knives. Jews were armed with old Chezh rifles.
Hezbollah stood against Israel for several weeks only because Israeli government was reluctant to authorize carpet bombing of the area.

But note that Jews never attacked Muslims. We always repel their aggression. Sure, we’d love to live in peace, but we also realize it is not forthcoming among the billion Muslims.

I won’t call Chomsky and especially Said professionals. They are anti-Semites with strong agenda. You may want to read Obadiah’s rebuttal of Said, a last chapter in Obadiah’s book, Samson Blinded, available here: http://samsonblinded.org/files/SamsonBlinded.pdf

I don’t think that Hezbollah matched the Israeli army. The IDF purposely diminished its capabilities under the pressure of political correctness.

Would you suggest a historical example when hate (or, rather, violence) was crushed with love?

Again, I’d love to see Israel at peace with Muslims, but would you agree that it was Muslims who repeatedly attacked my country? Even in 2006, Israel invaded Lebanon only after the aggression by Hezbollah. And consider that Hezbollah had no reason to kidnap Israeli soldiers after Israel withdrew from Lebanon in the year 2000. Or please consider the hatred which Egyptian media consistently express toward Israel even though Egypt and Israel are at peace for thirty years. Israeli media are reasonably nice toward Egypt.

I would like to welcome you to Israel to see for yourself.

Muslims tolerate Jews, you know, as dhimmis. Jews receive administrative autonomy but cannot vote on political matters. Israel offers her Muslims a s similar concept of ger toshav – resident alien endowed with all rights except political. But we expect certain loyalty from ger toshav, while Israeli Arabs actively support Israeli enemies. There were many pictures of Israeli Arabs sitting on their rooftops in 2006 and cheering Hezbollah’s rockets flying to Haifa. Would you accept such disloyal subjects as proper citizens?

Danny the Admin 2007 September 14

Jews don’t have a uniform position on such contacts. Religiously, Jews maintain a degree on isolation. We don’t bug the whatever nation happens to live nearby, and expect reciprocity. There is little reason for Jews to engage Muslim states in the Middle East: they are technologically and economically negligible. Jews don’t want Saudis to invest in politically sensitive land here. So, basically, we don’t need Arabs.
Now, many leftist Jews want stronger interconnection with Arabs, but failed to achieve it due to the Arab hostility. The two Arab countries at peace with Israel, Egypt and Jordan, remain deeply hostile on popular level. Arab League boycotts Israel.