The IDF’s lamentations about a shortage of funds and recruits highlight the gross mismanagement in the Israeli army. Originally a lean, daring, highly professional army, today’s IDF combines the worst traits of the American and the Russian militaries: it demands expensive cannons and cheap cannon fodder. Politicized, bureaucratized, and addicted to hyper-expensive, untested American military toys, the IDF seeks to overcome institutional disadvantages with mass and money.
The 1982 and to a larger extent the 2006 Lebanon war marked a shift in the balance of will. Up until then, the Arabs fought grudgingly and the Jews – vehemently. Now the Arabs are ideologically charged while peace propaganda and constant concessions to the Arab enemy have made the Jews reluctant to fight. Still, the conscription figures are remarkably good: the number of outright refuseniks is negligible and only 7% skip the army for medical reasons, many of them legitimately. The society’s morale is so low that 4% of the conscription-age youth are convicted criminals, but there is no problem of draft dodging in Israel.
Most students of religious schools refuse to serve in the IDF. Though anti-Zionist propaganda by ultra-Orthodox rabbis play a major role in their refusal, the IDF alienates religious students by requiring them to serve in mixed secular-religious units. Mixed units do not allow for a religious way of life. The IDF can easily bring yeshiva students into the army by creating strictly religious units without a hint of secularization; that would alleviate the rabbis’ major objection to conscription. Instead, the IDF introduces secular peacenik brainwashing detestable to the normal, let alone to religious, Jews. Add the un-Jewish atmosphere of intimidation of young draftees by their ostensible comrades from rough neighborhoods, and it is a wonder why so few Jews refuse induction.
The IDF spends the available human resources inefficiently. Girls are rarely given meaningful support jobs, let alone combat roles. Arabs can be conscripted for secondary support roles and construction work; let them prove their loyalty to the Jewish state. Reservists receive next to no training during their periodic muster. The available troops waste time in camps instead of using the readily available training grounds in Gaza.
It is impossible to devise an intensive training program 1.5-3 years long. The IDF removes young Jews from studies and productive work, but fails to fill their schedule. The cost of the army draft to Israeli society is incalculable. The draft robs the Israeli economy of people in their most creative age and impedes their propensity for university studies. The IDF has to decrease the infantry draft period to six months at most; an intensive half-year training is more than enough to acquire the necessary skills. Yeshiva students will easier accept a short draft than a years-long service which takes them away from studies.
Snobbish procurement officials prefer US-made gadgets to Israeli weapons. Israel canceled many promising developments and competitive production lines in favor of the American imports. For a mere $2 billion a year in subsidies, Israel re-oriented her military procurement toward America. Worse still, Israel adopted the US model of waging wars: namely, technical abundance. Since WWI, America has conducted its wars with a massive advantage in material supply; Germany, Japan, or Vietnam could not compete with the supply chain of the American military-industrial complex. Israel uncritically accepted the model of ultra-rich America. Though the exact figures of Israel’s military expenditures are unknown, they can be safely estimated at two to three times the official figure of $17 billion if accounting for GDP losses from conscription and other indirect costs. Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz similarly estimated the US costs of the Iraqi war at least three times higher than direct budgetary expenditures. For a trillion dollars, every insurgent in Iraq would commit suicide and spare America the war effort. Jews also spend their military budget meaninglessly.
The Navy is great for boosting the egos of the General Staff, but lacks practical application in Israeli wars. Large tank corps were great thirty years ago, but advances in anti-tank rockets have made them too vulnerable, even allowing for the excellent Trophy active defense system. Top-of-the-line US planes in the IAF service lack viable opponents; cheaper Russian or Israeli Kfir planes would do the job as well. In the new wars, enemies will not attack Israel with immense infantry forces because they would fear amassing such forces at the border with Israel. Rather, they will launch hundreds of missiles on Israel simultaneously.
Israel won all her major wars through smartness and advantage in mobile warfare, but there is only so much mobility can do against numbers. The numerically superior Russians defeated the strategically brilliant Germans in WWII. The Arabs vastly outnumber Israel in terms of infantry and armaments. When Islamists come to power in Pakistan, they will further equalize the Arab-Israeli balance of power by providing the Arabs with a nuclear shield. Israel cannot hope to win wars forever, but has to switch to deterring the Arabs. The only credible deterrent is nuclear, and it has nothing to do with conscription.
America lost many lives on Iwo Jima, but ultimately the war with Japan was decided by nuclear weapons. Israel has no option to prevent large wars with Arabs other than announcing the defensive strategy of total nuclear destruction.


I am in agreement with almost everything you have said. Israel has lost all of its powers of deterrence, as has the US, nukes or not. The civilian populations just do not believe that Israel, or the US, would actually threaten them. This has been shown to these populations over the decades, especially with respect to Israel - which has NEVER bombed an enemy city into oblivion.
Israel, in the end, has never fought a "war", but only "defenses". Cairo never really feared bombing. Damascus residents don't worry that their government's moves will get them killed. No one in the arab world worries about Israeli retaliation against the populations. This was just further reinforced by that MORONIC idea that someone had (probably Bush and Olmert, together) to put the last Lebanese War on hold for a week to let everyone and anyone flee to the north, until Israel's bombing of empty buildings resumed. At this point, the weakness of Israel was on full display.
As to nukes having subdued Japan, that is not exactly true. It wasn't just the nukes. We had firebombed 60+ Japanese cities before the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - and more people were killed in the firebombing of Tokyo than either of the nuke blasts.
But, what the US showed in WWII, to the Japanese, was that we were willing to exterminate the entire nation unless they surrendered unconditionally. The Japanese had tried to surrender with conditions before the nukes, but in his last lucid moment, Truman rejected it. Israel has never demanded the unconditional surrender of ANYONE, and that is why Israel has fought the same exact war every ten years - and will continue to do so until Israel is no more.
Israel doesn't need to make empty threats about nuclear annihilation of enemies (that no one belives, anyway). Israel just needs to bring some real pain to the populations who support the enemy. Until Israel shows that it is willing to be ruthless, empty threats of total destruction are laughable, at best.
In WWII, the US killed some 4% of the Japanese population. This is the minimum percentage of an Arab population that will have to be killed to even begin to get the sort of effects that the US derived from its fight with Japan - that Japan has become a trusted and valuable ally and a productive nation that threatens no one.
Arab populations are not nearly as smart as the Japanese, and don't have nearly as much to lose, so it will probably take more around 20% of an Arab population killed to trigger the "Japan effect". Against the Shiites in Lebanon, this would have meant that hundreds of thousands of Lebanese Shiites needed to be killed. Anything less would deliver exactly what we have today, a standing Arab threat with populations who have no fear of Israel ever attacking them - even if their armies attack Israel.
Israeli threats of nuclear annihilation mean nothing if Israel keeps showing that it is reluctant to kill anyone.
The Jewish people would not countenance the use of their WMD unless the survival of Israel were at immediate risk — that is, unless they had to choose between nuclear assault on their foes and the destruction of Israel. What makes this puzzle mortal is that the Muslims have discovered that they can avert even that ultimate choice by acting as individuals or in tiny groups, with full deniability about what state or states has supported them.
Israel faces a truly cruel choice: either it must slaughter indiscriminately, or it must accept death by attrition. We shall see.
"Top-of-the-line US planes in the IAF service lack viable opponents"
DEBKA Reports: Iran buys 250 long-distance Sukhoi fighter-bombers, 20 fuel tankers, from Russia
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=4449
True, and the arms race underscores the need for massive nuclear deterrent.
Given the flight time from Iran, by the time Su-30 reach Israel in offensive operations, they will be tactically comparable even to the old Kfir planes. In terms of defensive capability, Iran is way better off with Tor-1M missiles.
But deterrence only works if someone believes that the actions will acutally be carried out!
Israel has NEVER shown that it was willing to kill in the way that a nuclear threat would require, which makes the idea of a credible Israeli nuclear deterrent remote, to put it mildly.
Don't get me wrong, I am for an Israeli nuclear deterrent, but it will not be effective in any way unless Israel starts demonstrating some actual ruthlessness in its battles - and I mean true ruthlessness. Otherwise, the Israeli nuclear arsenal looks more like a prize to be captured than a deterrent, and that is extremely dangerous.
wow, that post blindsided me, i totally didn't expect it while checking out blogexplosion, great one
This has always been the problem with Israel's policy vis-a-vis the Arabs - no real stick, and not much of a carrot, either. And in a society of inherent cruelty, where death in battle (including suicide) is taught as one of the highest values, you need a pretty big stick.
A quite simple demonstration of ruthlessness does not even have to be all that deadly:
Let an Israeli government with a spine and testicles (both lacking in the regime of King Olmert,) announce that for every Kassam missile landing in Israel, five meters of Gaza will be razed to the ground. The population can flee if they like, but a strip of bare earth at the "border" will extend five meters wider for every missile. Shoot five missiles at us? That day the D-9s will start tearing up everything in a twenty-five meter wide strip.
Collective punishment, the weenie world might whine? No, a simple elimination of launching sites. We could even "spin" it that we want to avoid civilian casualties from counter-fire by eliminating the civilian sites from which the rocketeers can operate!
Of course, all of that is deterrence on the collective (I hesitate to use the word "national" when there's no nation involved) level. There is also a certain ruthlessness needed to provide a deterrent on the individual level.
Here, Britain has shown us the way. The Islamists have a real fear: of contamination from pigs. It seems that martyr-loving virgins will have nothing to do with a Muslim touching pork, and the swine never makes it into Heaven. So let us do as the British did, and guarantee that every dead terrorist gets shipped home in a bodybag made of pigskin. Surely we can even find some Israel-loving Southern Baptists who will donate the pig skins for free, complete with "Jesus loves you!" and "From America, with love" slogans printed on the side!
Yep, I agree. Obadiah argued for similar extension of no-man's zone in response to attacks from the outbreak of second intifada.
And also about the pig skins, burying the executed terrorists in pig skins like the British did. Absolutely right. That was very effective.
I'm with Obadiah and progressoverpeace in this one. Well put.
Ruthlessnes creates fear - fear brings peace.
You don't need to be a noble prize winner (For peace) to know that.