The Muslim Brotherhood is the largest opposition force in Egypt. It will not start a war with Israel immediately upon coming to power in Egypt. The West will isolate an (any?) Islamic fundamentalist regime. America will find it impossible to continue giving military aid to an Islamist regime. The Muslim Brotherhood will be unable to improve an Egyptian economy conditioned by a low learning culture and the absence of a work ethic. Foreign investors will shy away from an increasingly Islamic country. Corrupt local businessman will cry bloody murder and fly away with their capital. Liberal democrats will carp on their religious competitors and denounce Islamism vociferously, prompting the Muslim Brotherhood to suppress free speech and further isolate Egypt. Common Egyptians will soon grow dissatisfied with the Muslim Brotherhood just like the Iranians grew discontent of the ayatollahs. A corrupt government is preferable to an inept one, and Egyptians will start bringing down the Muslim Brotherhood. In the interests of Islam, the organization will curtail democracy.

The Muslim Brotherhood won’t be able to launch a good war against Israel. Such a war requires major foreign sponsors, but Russia will remain somewhat apprehensive of the Islamic regime, Iran won’t want a competitor for leadership in the Muslim world, and countries like China or Pakistan cannot foot the bill for fighting Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood will follow Iran’s path to glory with nuclear development and also copy Iran by fanning peripheral wars with Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood will support Palestinian insurgents in Gaza and supply them conventional weapons. Islamist Egypt will contest the Iranian influence in Syria and re-establish long-term military cooperation. Egypt could aid Jordan whether officially or through the Palestinian majority.

The Muslim Brotherhood is relatively moderate. They aim at establishing a just Islamic state, not a Taliban-style caliphate. Their program could work in mid-size communities, perhaps in a small country, but not in a diverse, aspiring society like Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood will fail economically and like other economically failed regimes, will seek military and foreign glory.

The Muslim Brotherhood continuously produces militant offshoots such as Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. It’s almost impossible to strike a balance between moderation and a strong sense of religious identity. The moderate Muslim Brotherhood produces a stream of hard-line Islamists – a small minority of the adherents, but enough to bug Israel and the West with terrorism. Moderate members cannot abandon their zealous brothers and give them financial, logistical, and political support. The Muslim Brotherhood will fan the war of attrition on Israeli borders.