Russia creates Third world opposition to the West, a giant peripheral conflict. The Western hemisphere is burning from Brazil to Mexico. Socialist regimes spring to power like they did thirty years ago. Western and Eastern Europe are addicted to Russia’s gas pipeline. Way smarter and more aggressive than the Saudis, the Russians use their energy reserves as an empire-building tool no less effective than their military tools. The North Korean axis of evil is bleak compared to the rogue energy axis of Russia, Iran, Algiers, and Venezuela. Oil- and gas-rich economical dwarfs like Algeria, Iran, and Venezuela buy cheap Russian weapons to boost their rulers’ egos. Russia far outsells the US – the largest arms supplier in dollar terms – in terms of quantity. Russia is a country of individual geniuses but lackluster industry; it cannot build consistently good, complex systems. The Russian best-selling MIG-29 planes, for example, are perfect in dogfights and incorporate some top-of-the-line features, but their shortcomings such as insufficient range, low engine quality, and others prevent their use as a strategic fleet. Russian weapons, though indigenous and sometimes excellent, are inferior to high-tech American weaponry. Russian arms sales, accordingly, go predominantly to the Third world, whose countries only expect to fight equally barbaric neighbors. Thus the renewed military cooperation of Russia with Libya, Ethiopia, and Angola. In this vicious cycle, the dregs of the international community depend on Russia for cheap arms, and Russia stirs them to sell more arms. The Russian policy is not very different from the American policy: recall, for example, how the US pushed its arms to Saudi Arabia in the 1990s; the problem is, figuratively, that America is a respectable owner of an upscale liquor shop while Russia sells booze to drunkards. The drunkards’ dependency on the shop owner turns into a political alignment with him.
Though Russian sales of aircraft are minuscule, and of light arms – strategically unimportant, Russian defense systems are reminiscent of the revolver ad, “God created men; Colonel Colt made them equal.” It takes a dozen $1,000 rockets to destroy a $5 million tank. But in the endless offense-defense cycle, options always exist; Israel has a 98% effective Trophy anti-RPG system. Of course, Trophy doesn’t work that well in an urban environment, where it lacks enough time to react to flying projectiles, but then Israel doesn’t need to engage in urban fights; the Americans fire-bombed Tokyo instead of storming it. Besides, supplemental pain ray (millimeter wave) systems keep RPG operators at sufficient distance for Trophy to work. Russian defense missiles do, however, provide a perfect excuse for Israeli defeatists: Oh, how would we fight Syria full of Russian anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles? Tank losses in the Second Lebanon war prompted the government to announce an ostensibly earlier decision to scrap Merkava production. Instead of avoiding urban warfare and refraining from sending tanks unsupported by helicopters, the Israeli establishment opts for the easiest choice: scrap expensive tanks and send cheap soldiers instead. The Russian missile threat is a perfect companion to the US military-industrial complex’ pressure on Israel to stop her military production lines. Trophy is the direct competitor to Raytheon’s Active Kill anti-RPG defense and impedes the mammoth rearmament program of the Future Combat Systems. Merkava production doesn’t allow Israel to buy twice as expensive US Abrams tanks. Russian missile sales to Muslim countries, though of moderate significance strategically, unleash a rolling ball of corruption and political considerations.
To comply with international restrictions on rocket sales, Russia decreased the range of its SS-23 series to make a 280km-range Iskander-E missile. In regards to Israel, that is the equivalent of a strategic ballistic missile. When Russia asserts it complies with international controls on arms exports, that’s irrelevant for Israel. Russian Iskander-E missiles with a 480kg payload of cluster bombs or with improved conventional munitions (high-power explosives) are capable of striking any target in Israel with several meters’ precision. Reportedly, the Iskander missiles can bypass the Arrow-2 and Patriot defense systems deployed in Israel (astonishingly, Israel lacks SS-23 to test and adapt her missile defense against them). No less importantly, the Syrians can easily adapt the unique Russian navigational systems to their other needs.
Russia re-arms itself with SS-27 (Topol-M) ICBM with multiple nuclear warhead (MIRV) whose prime target is the US. Russia claimed that the Start-II treaty that prohibited multiple nuclear warheads expired when America resumed work on a missile defense system. The US Administration evidently expected the cash-starved Russians to swallow the pill and do nothing. Instead, Russia sold some oil to the West and built ICBMs with the proceeds.
The SS-27 boasts the capability of bypassing American missile defenses. America, accordingly, sought to deploy a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, creating a crisis with Russia. The number of new Russian ICBMs is still minuscule, but that can swiftly expand and anyway they form a clear threat.
To buy Russia off is impossible. That country won’t stop working on a $1 billion Bushehr reactor in Iran if the US compensates it for the lost profits. An opportunity to stir a conflict is more important to Russia than money. But – money is more important to individual Russians. Much like how the US brilliantly bribed Iraqi commanders before the invasion, it can bribe top bureaucrats in Russia’s security services. A billion dollars is nothing to Russia, but is a meaningful amount to KGB/FSB bosses.
Containment is the only efficient policy to counter the Russian threat. If Russia delivers MIG-31 interceptors to Syria, then shoot them when the Syrians take the planes off for training. Detected Panzir missile defense radars? Use some anti-radar missiles immediately. Syria only needs these weapons against Israel, so why not take them out now instead of during a war? Such a response would preempt a Russian-sponsored arms race in the Middle East. Again, that’s not a panacea; the proliferation of American weapons is no less dangerous. Nothing precludes Israel from similarly treating Arab weapons purchases from America: UAE’s F-16s can be destroyed on the ground. And at least, the US doesn’t arm Syria or Iran.
America wants limited Russian involvement in the Middle East. This way, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will lean closer to America. The resulting arms race will bankrupt Israel.
Russia is not a Soviet-age military superpower. For all the recent increases in military spending, Russia purchases hardly $5 billion worth of new weapons annually, and cutting edge weapons account for hardly a quarter of that amount. In purchasing power parity figures, that’s about $12-15 billion of Israeli spending on the more expensive, hi-tech American -style weapons. Israel was bogged down in Lebanon, and Russia – in Chechnya. The two armies are not incomparable in offense capabilities, and Israel need not give way to Russia’s bullying.
Israel will find it hard to contain Russian influence in the Middle East now, but containing armed-to-the-teeth Russian clients later will prove altogether impossible.
