The American negotiators imagine that North Korea would conduct nuclear disarmament for a million tons of heavy oil. That’s below $300 million. North Korea could get higher price for a single nuclear bomb on the black market. That country has enough plutonium for several bombs. The deal is senseless for Korea both in terms of pride and money. North Koreans stated the oil pays for “temporary suspension” of nuclear production. Considering pitiful performance of the first Korean bomb, the suspension was there, anyway. North Korea needs time to improve the bomb’s design.
The agreement merely stipulates the parties’ will to regional denuclearization, essentially leaving the issue unresolved. American politicians will soon start questioning North Korean performance. The situation recalls the early days of American immigration, when settlers bought land from Red Indians; settlers thought they were buying ownership, Indians were selling right of use. Similar misunderstanding will come up with Korea. US will say it provided aid for abandoning nuclear aspirations, North Korea will retort that is clearly announced temporary suspension. US negotiators badly needed domestic political effect, a major diplomatic victory to offset the Iraqi fiasco, and promised North Korea a million tons of oil to play up to America. Soon, America and North Korea will accuse each other of cheating and spiral hostilities. The political time horizon is too short to care about consequences.
Japan gave a lesson to Israel when refused aid to North Korea because it holds a few abducted Japanese civilians. Israel pays the Palestinian government which abducted her soldier.

North Korea would be stupid (and it is not) to dismantle its nuclear program. That would fix the amount of aid at the currently proposed moderate level. The West would blackmail North Korea with cessation of aid over any incident or misbehavior. Sales of ballistic missiles or other military technology, questionable financial operations, even export of pirated CD’s could make a case for stopping the aid. The US ended the agreed-to aid over the North Korean violations, and that scenario is likely to be repeated. Instead, North Korea offers freezing the nuclear production but staying with the existing arsenals and continuing nuclear research in the facilities closed to inspection. That approach assures North Korea of the continued aid, to be increased in response to Korean advances in nuclear technology. Compare Pakistan and South Africa, a state with illegal nuclear bomb and a state that dismantled its nuclear weapons. Pakistan is way better off in terms of financial aid, military supplies, and political backing. Unpredictable North Koreans would be courted, if wielding nuclear power.
Westerners are rational: a good offer should be accepted. In the East, manners matter. Pride is valued above money. North Korea won’t trade its nuclear status (assuming it has tested a nuclear device) for aid. It might keep the nuclear status without significantly enlarging nuclear arsenals, but not refuse the weapon altogether.
But why the fuss about North Korea? Islamic Pakistan, run by military junta and fundamentalists, stocks dozens of nuclear bombs.

North Korea refuses to negotiate its nuclear program until the US unfreezes its assets and abandons the demand for nuclear disarmament. Good. North Korea saves US taxpayers a few bucks which would be otherwise wasted on pointless conferences. What did the US government expect from negotiations?

Every state dreams of nuclear weapons. The few cases to the contrary are highly specific. South Africa dismantled its nuclear arsenal so it did not fall to the blacks. The Ukraine shipped Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia to appease. After the Chernobyl explosion, the pacifist Ukrainian president encountered no opposition in repatriating the dangerous nuclear devices. Russia’s satellites Kazakhstan and Belarus could not refuse its demand to return the weapons.

A nuclear arsenal is indispensable for North Korea. The country feels threatened by China, South Korea, Japan, and ultimately the US. The dying communist state needs to instill militarist pride in its citizens. Nuclear capability gives even a worthless country a place at international conferences. Nuclear pauper states are assured of foreign attention and aid.

What could North Korea hope to get by nuclear demilitarization? Even in the unimaginable scenario of North Korea abandoning its nuclear aspirations, how to verify that it dismantles all its bombs and does not sell nuclear technology to other rogue states?

The nuclearization of North Korea is a done deal, irreversible. Now the US can only neutralize the consequences: bomb every known or imagined North Korean nuclear facility, including underground ones, and threaten to destroy the cities should the country engage in nuclear proliferation. A mighty response would stop other nuclear aspirants.

How unthinkable is it to bomb North Korea? Eisenhower announced US plans to employ nuclear weapons against North Korea in 1953 and America threatened again in 1976 Both times the Koreans backed down. The US successfully resorted several times to nuclear threats against China.

The communist regime of North Korea is apparently satisfied with the results of its nuclear test. The low yield of 0.6kt suggests faulty assembly, and North Korea’s intent to conduct a second nuclear test confirms the failure of the first.

A country that has almost completed its nuclear weapons program has no reason to stop just before the finish. The UN has substantially exhausted its arsenal of sanctions. The second test won’t make North Korea’s situation any worse. The cowardly West won’t attack North Korea’s nuclear installations.

For China, returning North Korea to the talks is a matter of re-establishing Chinese credibility as regional hegemon. A Chinese diplomatic failure would spell more Japanese involvement in the region and probably cause Japan to develop nuclear capability and the US to beef up its armed forces in the Chinese sphere of influence.

The Chinese hardly convinced the North Koreans to resume talks with the carrot of economic aid. North Korea could surely get more aid from the US in return for concessions. Two options are likely. China can offer North Korea technological assistance to correct the nuclear bomb assembly errors. That way, North Korea doesn’t need a second test: the Chinese will make sure North Korean nuclear weapons are in good working order. Another option is the Chinese convince North Korea to drag the talks out, a typically Chinese approach. Under the cover of international negotiations, North Korea will continue its nuclear program.

North Korea takes the PR lead. It is a strong nuclear state yet shows the will to negotiate peacefully with international community.The predictable failure of indecisive talks will be blamed on the US. Sanctions after the talks fail will be attributed to America’s cowboy foreign policy. Vietnamese communists used that tactic with great success during their war with America.

The US could play that game and talk nicely to North Korea during the endless diplomatic rounds. Just destroy the North Korean nuclear facilities first.

A murderer is released on parole. After some time, he brags about acquiring a machine gun. The court imposes a harsh sentence on him: he cannot buy a Lexus until he sells the gun. That’s how the UN crowd punished North Korea.

To order that North Korea should not buy tanks and aircraft is ridiculous. It can’t afford them.

North Korea’s nuclear program is up and running. It could do with additional supplies which, at any rate, would be flown in by charter planes from Pakistan not subject to search. Cargo inspections might interdict the export of conventional weapons from North Korea, but those are not critical. Few nations are likely do perform such inspections, and North Korea will easily circumvent them. Unscrupulous businesses from China and Russia, but also from other countries, will provide raw materials for the North Korean weapons programs. The world market is just too big to control it.

The threat of freezing the funds of companies dealing with North Korean military programs is empty. Money in offshore accounts moves in seconds. No one uses legitimate companies for illegal transactions. By the time the authorities block the accounts, there will be nothing to block.

A UN resolution which contains no economic sanctions and excludes the use of force is a clear victory for North Korea.