Nation-states fearfully cling to their borders, almost divinized. Bereft of religion, core nation or ideology, nation-states worship borders. To inhibit doubt about sanctity of their own borders, large nation-states guarantee borders of irrelevant entities and even enemies. Thus the concern for Middle East borders. There are no nations among Arabs. Saudis are different from Omanis no more than various tribes in Saudi Arabia differ among themselves. Lines between the Arab groups are arbitrary and often erroneous. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are unsustainable states and have to be broken into at least Shia and Sunni parts, probably more. Christians and Muslims will split Lebanon. Druzes will develop nationalism and demand a piece of Lebanon, too. Jordanian monarchy will fall, and Jordan will attach itself to the West Bank Palestinians. It takes economic and cultural development to abandon clan alliances in favor of larger statehood, and, historically speaking, mega-states still did not prove viable. Most European nation-states are hardly a century old, and Arabs lag more than a century behind Europe. They are not ready for nation-states. Arab nation-states turn quasi-caliphates like Oman or oppressive empires like Egypt; tribal differences are not yet blurred. Tribes forced to co-exist in artificial Arab countries express discontent which exacerbates economic tensions. Civil strife will not occupy the Arab enough to leave the other cultures alone. Rather, Arabs sublimate discontent on external enemies, Israel and America.

Arab states will eventually dissolve into manageable entities. That could happen through sectarian strife or due to the population increase, when oil welfare no longer suffices to buy popular compliance. The West tried to preserve the borders of Yugoslavia and Rwanda, and saw the result. Let the Arabs reshape their borders.