Historical borders are not arbitrary. The powers cannot redraw borders at will. Artificial states such as Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine are unsustainable and will be absorbed by their neighbors. Others will integrate, like UAE did.
There’s nothing Israel could have done in Lebanon in 1982 or 2006. Killing all the guerillas and blowing all weapons caches would solve the problem for a month. The natural balance of power would reemerge. The only choice is to do away with artificial states.
Christians and Muslims won’t fight perpetually in Lebanon. Palestinians will get a homeland in Jordan. Iraqi ethnic and religious groups will be attached to the core states of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey or Kurdistan. Short of that, there will be perpetual tumult, fighting and atrocities at Israel’s borders, and the Middle East will be a burning spot.
Neighboring states always fight. That’s human nature. Wars are often economically motivated, but often are not, certainly not for rank-and-file participants. A sixty-year respite in Europe after a devastating war was taken for the end of times, specifically of the brutal times. It is not. Human mentality remains remarkably persistent throughout history; ethics of ancient India, Mesopotamia, and Greece are applicable today. Even after the shock of WWII, France slaughtered Algerians and, along with the US—Vietnamese. The British fought for the irrelevant Falklands, the Russians fought with the Afghanis, and Chinese with the Indians. Civilized nations indirectly participated in scores of other wars after WWII, and the barbarous Muslims slaughtered each other and their unfortunate neighbors with a vengeance. Palestinians tried to kill the Jewish settlers before 1948, and afterwards Muslims fought several wars to annihilate Israel. Common Muslims are universally and violently anti-Israeli. The world of Islam has enough youngsters to fight Israel, and enough rich people to finance the guerilla war. Muslims in places such as Tehran, Port Said, and Gaza demonstrated their tolerance to losses and military reprisals; they don’t fear an all-out war with Israel.
Time sometimes heals wounds, but more often the wounds take on legendary proportions. Time did not make the French or the Germans forget Alsace-Lorraine, and the Jews have not forgotten Jerusalem in two thousand years. To think that the Palestinians will forget their land is silly racism, the more so because they have no other national idea. Palestinians lack any specific culture, achievements, and work ethic. Their young people, even if employed, will always fall short of their Hollywood dreams. Their discontent, hatreds, and national consciousness will center on their wounds and their enemies, on the lost land and the Jews who took it. There will be no perpetual peace.
Israel will need to retain her military capability. In fact, Israeli military expenses soared after the peace treaty with Egypt. Why keep a strong army and give core lands to enemies? Why expect a war and shrink the country’s depth of defense? Why boost the enemy’s morale with endless concessions? Why lose a war before is starts?
The Israeli government attempts to avert a war through appeasement. That doesn’t work. Satisfying the enemy’s demands prompts him to demand more. The chain of concessions is not endless; it ends with the Jews in the Red Sea – but this time it won’t part.