Ultra-Orthodox Jews don’t need a Jewish state. Their religion is internalized, practiced individually or in small communities. They long abandoned the real, collective Judaism: the faith of club-wielding warriors, bloody sacrifices, and repression of non-believers.
Haredim, accordingly, picked a number of second-rate theological arguments to prove that the current state is not Jewish. Satmar’s beloved argument is an obscure Talmudic prohibition of returning to the land against the other nations’ wishes. Ignore the obvious retort that the UN bunch conceded our land to us, and so there’s no revolt against nations. The prohibition contradicts many prophecies and commentaries which speak of messianic wars. Not only the prohibition lacks the Torah roots, but it contradicts the plain text of Deut30: Jews would conquer the land (v.5) and Jew-hating nations will be punished (v.7). Besides, rabbinical commentators acknowledged that the prohibition is conditioned upon the injunction to nations to refrain from oppressing Israel: the nations reneged on their part of the deal, and Jews are free from our part, even if the obligation existed at all.

Nor is there a requirement that the Jewish state must be pious. Many times during our history, Jews lapsed into paganism, but no one doubts that the ancient kingdom was Jewish. The messianic Deut30 clarifies that conquest comes first and the circumcision of heart later (vv.5 and 6, respectively). The correlation is reasonable: people first become passionately patriotic and then search for their roots, rather than the other way around.

Some require monarchy as proof of the state’s Jewishness. But how does a legitimate monarch prove himself? Rambam treads the issue at length and arrives at a sensible conclusion: we would know the king by his deeds. If he succeeds at driving away our enemies and rebuilds the Temple, then he’s the king. Thus, we can only find out the king by actually going up the Temple Mount and building the Temple. That doesn’t really require a supernatural effort.
Rabbinical commentators also allowed that the king won’t be of the Davidic lineage, so we shouldn’t break our heads over the impossible genealogical feats. Though Maimonides suggests that Messiah will identify priests and the seed of David, the process is highly unlikely. A nice Jewish guy calls himself a Messiah, names the monarch—but refuses a miracle to substantiate his claim of authority. Even Moses recognized that the Jews wouldn’t believe him without a miracle. But Maimonides is categorical: Messiah will perform no miracles.

Nor is the requirement of monarchy self-evident. According to Deut17:14, when the Jews ask for a monarch like all the neighboring peoples, that ruler should be Jewish. That’s it, nothing more. We’re not obligated to set up a king, especially given that the Prophet Samuel, speaking in the name of God, had roundly condemned monarchy. Just like slavery, monarchy is a concession to prevailing customs rather than an obligatory commandment, a permission rather than an obligation. The permission is contingent on the neighboring peoples having their own monarchs. As today they don’t, the permission has become inoperative. Indeed, in the existing Jewish society monarchy would be unworkable; it would result in a haredi rabbinical council appointing a pious king who would direct all taxes to the non-working lifetime Torah students.

Many Orthodox Jews cite the absence of a Messiah as proof that the current Jewish state is not divinely ordained and is not worth fighting for against the government of rodef and malshin. Their attitude resounds with atheist Israelis who hate to hate. They cannot bring themselves to shoot the traitors of Jewish origin who capitulate to Arabs or evict the Jews. In the small and deeply interconnected Israeli society, the Messiah thing provides everyone with a welcome excuse for inaction.

The doctrine of Messiah is virtually non-existent in the Torah. At most, it is traceable to the promise to send “someone like Moses.” But rabbis routinely apply that definition to themselves in order to assert their right to judicial activism. There is wild disagreement among rabbinical commentators on the status and details of Messiah. Though many demand of him supernatural capabilities, Maimonides ruled such views ignorant and silly. He ascertained that Messiah will not change any laws of nature and will be just a man like any other—his measure of success being the proof of his divine mission. Indeed, in Judaism even God doesn’t perform miracles by violating the laws of nature; rather, he adjusts probabilities. A coin thrown into the air landing on its rim is a legitimate miracle, but one hanging in the air is not. The common Orthodox demand for Messiah to miraculously deliver the Third Temple from heaven is not just absurd, but obscene in terms of normative Judaism.

Nor should a Messiah necessarily succeed. The doctrine of two Messiahs presumes that an enemy kills Messiah ben Yosef, Rabbi Meir Kahane qualifies. Even if Messiah comes today, who would believe him? He performs no miracles—how’s he different from Rabbi Kahane?
The Torah does not connect the final redemption to Messiah. That could not be an omission because other promises are very detailed and conform to the current and only the current situation. Jews will be gathered from all corners of the world—it has only happened now, and the leftovers in the Diaspora assimilate quickly. Jews will dwell secure—and astonishingly we defeated the Muslim hordes armed by Christians. Jewish borders will reach the Promised Land positions—and we received them to the last inch: Transjordan within a tactical reach from Euphrates through the Mandate, Lebanon up to Litani River, Sinai unto Suez, and the coast.
The only doubt is about the promise that all hearts will turn to God—but that event is promised after we take over the land (Deut 30:6). A similar verse in 30:2 is out of chronological order, as commentators readily recognize for many places in the Torah. The text is highly reasonable: secure and victorious Jews will seek a theoretical basis for their patriotism, and will find it in Judaism.

Extra-Torah details also conform fully. Just as Zecharia prophesied, one third died in Europe, another third died in the American assimilation oven, and the final third is being purified in Israel through many ordeals. Just as Maimonides asserted, the only difference between the messianic age and the previous one shall be the absence of a foreign yoke on Jews—which, notwithstanding the UN mob, has happened.

“Everything is in the power of heaven except the fear of heaven.” God can turn the wheels of probabilities but he cannot do everything himself. Every precondition is there, but Jews must still act against their own traitors and external enemies. Then a Messiah would not be necessary.