Lieberman’s continued rise in polls testifies to popular disaffection with the establishment. His Knesset representation increased by half after the police crackdown. After the investigations of Rabin, Sharon, Katsav, Olmert, and many others, Israelis distrust police. The pre-election arrests in Lieberman’s milieu confirmed his anti-establishment reputation. He occupies a nice middle ground: an outsider immigrant at a time when everyone is disenchanted with native politicians, and a long-time Israeli with military experience. Lieberman is not corrupt by Israeli standards: his money comes from abroad rather than through government corruption. In a time when all government policies toward Palestinians have failed, Lieberman’s unrelenting, near-Kahanist stance is refreshing. Now of course he’s a demagogue, etc, etc.—but so is every politician.
Lieberman’s ascent comes largely out of Likud’s support as Netanyahu fails to differentiate himself from Avodah and Kadima, whose programs are similar to his. By splitting the right bloc’s vote, Lieberman and Netanyahu might open the way to Kadima. Ideally, Likud, Israel Beitenu, and other right-wing and religious parties should have joined together in a bloc: the very fact of so strong a bloc would bring them many more votes. The current situation is not bad, either. In fact, I would prefer Kadima forming the government. Counter-intuitive as that sounds, that would be better for the country.
In the government, Netanyahu will continue Kadima’s policies, dancing to Obama’s tune. True, we don’t know his tune yet; as a typical assimilated Jew turns against Jewish goals, so Obama might turn against Muslim ones. But if so, any Israeli government would enjoy an American permission for right-wing policies. In a broad national government which involves Barak and Livni, Netanyahu would pursue peacenik policies. If he refuses, as was the case initially with the Hebron disengagement, Shabak will stage another one of its trademark provocations. [In 1997, after Netanyahu resisted Israeli withdrawal from Hebron, an Israeli soldier opened fire at Arabs in a Hebron marketplace where many video cameras were conveniently ready. Almost immediately, the government passed the Hebron withdrawal, and Netanyahu even apologized to Arafat for the shooting. Arafat, who in his time oversaw many terrorist acts against Jews, was undoubtedly pleased.]
In the opposition, Netanyahu would fiercely condemn Livni-Barak-Lieberman’s government and lash out against its defeatist policies. With Netanyahu in opposition, Kadima’s government won’t be able to push any political concessions through the Knesset. Lieberman will soon join him in the opposition, making the leftist government rather short-lived and further discredited. Jews can safely vote for Lieberman and disregard a moderate threat to Likud’s victory.
Lieberman is the least worse choice in the current elections, but if you want to make a statement, Marzel’s National Union is the way to go.
