How many Arabs are there in Israel? The latest publicly available brochure on ethnic distribution from Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics is for the year 2003. It shows 15.6% of Arabs are aged 0-4, and 9.1% of Jews are in the same age group.
In 2007, Jews were 5,470,000, and Arabs - 1,449,000. Accordingly, the number of Jews younger than five years is 5,470,000*9.1%=498,000; Arabs are 1,449,000*15.6%=226,000. In 18 years, therefore, Arab voters would be 226,000/498,000=45% the number of Jews.
There are also 4.4% of other peoples in Israel, or approximately 7,241,000*4.4%*9.1%=29,000 younger than five. That makes the Jews approximately 498,000/(498,000+226,000+29,000)=66% of Israel's young population. Jews already lost the supermajority status required for many legislative acts.
In truth, the ratio of Jews is much, much less. More than 300,000 Israelis registered as Jews are not Jews according to the traditional Jewish requirements. Unknown number of Israelis, estimated at 120,000 - 200,000 have only a Jewish grandmother which hardly makes them Jewish for practical purposes. Close to 900,000 Israelis live abroad, many of them counted as Jews in Israeli census as they keep visiting Israel once in a while. Therefore, the real number of Jews in Israel is 5,470,000-300,000-120,000-900,000=4,150,000. That makes the number of Jews younger than five 4,150,000*9.1%=378,000. Arabs of the same age constitute 226,000/378,000=60% of the number of Jews. Jews, realistically, constitute 378,000/(378,000+226,000+29,000)=60% among the Israel's young.
The trend toward emigration of young, productive Jews exacerbates the demographic problem. The number of Jews includes many questionable ones, such as non-halachic Jews by paternal lineage and 120,000 Black Christians and fake converts.
The Arabs form 226,000/(378,000+226,000+29,000)=36% of the Israelis. Arabs can count on other non-Jews, the 4.4%, in many policies. Arabs are also supported by ultra-left Jews who take 5-8% of the Knesset seats. In some situations, anti-Zionist ultra-Orthodox Jews would join them; that's another 200,000 voters, or 3%. At the very least, those Jews generally abstain from voting, deducting the 3% from Jewish electoral base. That already GUARANTEES Arabs the Knesset majority in 18 years.
Moreover, Arab political spectrum is united in its most important aspect, opposition to Israel's Jewishness. That situation won't change: naturally, Arabs prefer a Muslim or ethnic-blind state to a Jewish one. On the background of highly fragmented Jewish political parties, Arabs will reach decisive power in the Knesset long before they and their allies form the majority.
The bulk of young Jewish population is concentrated in Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox sectors; the birth rate of secular Jews hardly breaks even. Birth rate among moderately Orthodox Jews, usually identified as religious Zionists, rapidly declines as they integrate into secular culture. Ultra-Orthodox Jews maintain their high birth rate due to the isolation from secular developments, but for the same reason they remain underproductive (often unemployed), unwarlike (often shrinking from IDF conscription), and contempt of the existing Jewish state. In some important respects, therefore, young Jews are becoming as inimical to Israel as Arabs.
The concentration of new Jewish births among ultra-Orthodox makes the birth rate vulnerable to welfare policies. After the child allowances for large families were reduced, and, say, a 10-child family found itself receiving merely $700 of subsidies per month instead of the pre-2001 level of $1,600, ultra-Orthodox families appeared in dire poverty. In effect, the government cut the subsidies retroactively, as the cut affected the children who were given birth with the previous level of subsidies in mind. The unruly ultra-Orthodox community frightens the government with its religious zeal, and the government works to decimate the community. In response to diminished subsidies, ultra-Orthodox birth rate dropped sharply. Though the official statistics remains secret – itself a proof of the government's malign intent – published pieces of evidence, such as the drop from 8.9 to 7.7 children in Beitar Illit, suggest a fertility reduction of 10-13%. The previous subsidies were not high: $160 per child per month for ten-child family translated into the government's expenses of $31,000 before the child reaches 17 years. That price is a bargain compared to state's expenses for secular education. The reduction of child allowances disproportionally hurt the high-yield ultra-Orthodox community, and significantly diminishes Jewish birth rate.
Israel's Arabs were 150,000 in 1948. In sixty years, they bred to tenfold increase.
The last time Jews constituted only 60% of Israeli population was in 1947. We have fought and expelled the Arabs.
Hello,
I disagree when you write that the birthrate of Israeli jews is declining. Read what the AISPG has to say : http://www.thefourthwayisrael.com/news_jpost.html.
Since the beginning of this century, the birthrates of all jewish sectors in Israel have increased to 2.7 while arab birthrates droped from 4.7 to 4.0 (druze and christian Arabs are already below the jewish level). Jewish births now represent 3/4 of all births in Israel.
Please read the powerpoint on the AISPG website. In Jerusalem, the jewish birthrates are now higher the arab ones. The situation is far from good but if Israel elect a responsible right-wing leader, she can win the demographic war.
Sincerly,
http://squallgreg.spaces.live.com.
This is not about "agree" or "disagree". Obadiah presents cold figures from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics.
And I never saw an official report stating that birth rate in Israel's secular sector is 2.7. In my experience, that's not so.
People love to disagree, though, Danny.
Tell them the sun is shining, and they'll start making up stories about how this is not so, and fight to prove their point.
Speaking of which, where is Ray Bright?
When anybody wheels out statistics I get suspicious. Some relevant questions…
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In this cas the death rates seem to be absent. If Jews lived longer than Arabs, then the birthrate would be lower. Was that children subsidy also available to Arabs?
I really like Obadiah's writings but this post is misleading.
"Close to 900,000 Israelis live abroad, many of them counted as Jews in Israeli census as they keep visiting Israel once in a while."
No, you need to spend more than half of the year in Israel to be counted as a resident. Actually that is something the AISPG is blaming the PA for doing. The PA keeps on counting so-called "palestinians" who live abroad years after years. Israel dont.
"Therefore, the real number of Jews in Israel is 5,470,000-300,000-120,000-900,000=4,150,000."
That's not cold figures, that's not even serious. 300,000 is a wild guess and substracting 900,000 is just silly.
Bar, Post-infantry death rate among Israeli Arabs is negligible. The 5-9 years' age group shows about the same results as 0-4, just a bit lower proportion of Arabs because of the time trend.
Note that the issue is not about birthrate, but about the Arabs already born. They are already a third among Israel's young and we're only waiting for that group to reach into the voting age.
Squall, In reality, you only have to come to Israel once a year to be included in the census. The 300,000 of non-halachic Jews is not a guess but very conservative estimate; since 1948, statistics reports 800,000 non-Jews admitted for residence in Israel; we don't know how many are alive. Judging by my experience with Russian Jewish organization, particularly Sohnut, I believe the figure of 300,000 is vastly understated.
But note that Obadiah mentions the figures of 900,000 and 300,000 as probable adjustments and clearly marks them as such. Even without those adjustments, the Arab population makes a third of Israel's young, and Jews lost the supermajority status.
Bekitzur , le hafef otam , Back to Kahana and Ze`evi policies .
Either that or close the store .
After years of thinking of creative solutions of the Arabs that live in Israel, I think I may have done it - make citizenship (future citizenship) contingent upon national service. This will be a win-win. It will get the Arab sector to stop being worthless (at least for three years), or it will cause these Arabs to not become citizens, thus not enabling them to vote and thus retaining a Jewish majority (politically). The only effective solution to a de facto Jewish majority is Transfer.
They tried that here.
The Arabs didn't feel like doing any national service (They didn't lie about it. They just got real angry about the idea)
And since Israelis fear the wrath of Arabs who live in Israel, there was no consequence to their refusal…
So basically it is better to be an Arab living in Israel: No taxes, no national service, and big houses. The only thing you have to fear is the reckless driving of your cousin, who already killed three of your brothers (On separate occasions) when he backed out of the driveway without checking first.
Eric,
Thanks for asking. I am hear reading all the posts.
I suggest that this is not a place to throw personal barbs. Such as "Speaking of which where is Ray Bright")
Erick,
Alyehoud's post makes sense to me. It seem like the absolute minimum that can be required of the citizens when their country's survival is threatened by the foreign attackers.
No country can tolerate a 5th column during such times: America (unjustly) interned it's Japanese citizens during WWII while their sons were loyally fighting for the US.
Let the Arab Israelis have the chance to be equal. And on the other hand, if their loyalty is with the enemies of the state, they should not receive any benefits from the state.
Arab Israelis who want to be loyal and patriotic part of Israel would need to be protected against those in their own communities who would harm them. Having accomplish that, I believe that there would be many Arabs who would be willing to serve. Arabs who are ready to die for Israel, should be treated as any other loyal citizen. They can be a great asset for IDF.
The rest may protest, this is to be expected: Every parasite protests when it is expelled from the body of their host.
Is there currently a debate in Israel on about Arab and Religious Jews serving in the IDF?
I would like to know about the positions of different groups.
The problem with your idea, Ray, is that you can't allow mass amount of Arabs, who have dual loyalties or plainly loyalties to Arabs, in the army establishment. They can't be privy to information lest more Bishara's will arise from within the army. Let along allowing them to control weapons and armor. This is worse than allowing Arabs en mass into Israel in the first place. They would be like a trojan horse.
They need to be kept in civilian roles on the national level.
Yes, the Arabs are Israel's 5th column. Sadly, though, Transfer is a long way off because of these leftists. We need a solution where it causes the onus to be on the Arabs and not the Jews.
Alyehound,
I do understand your concern. Yet, I think it is a solvable problem.
It requires a careful approach: There may well be some Arabs who would love to be Israeli, equal to Jews in every way including serving honorably in the army, risking their lives fighting the enemies. Perhaps they are one per 10,000, or 1/1000, or 1/100 I don't know, but I am sure that there are some.
I believe that part of the puzzle is Islam. Islam is a terrorist ideology, and no Israeli should be allowed to support Islam (or Nazism). A new Islam must be created by cutting out over 50% of Quran and other "holy books".
Only that new, non-political, personal Islam should be allowed, rest should be banned.
Here's a problem - how do we test these Arab's loyalties? A written statement Arabs would have to declare loyalty to a Jewish Israel as Lieberman proposed? Won't work, because words are not deeds. What about putting them in a situation where they have to choose, like in the army fighting Palestinian Arabs? Not smart because what if they decide they're more Palestinian than Israel and begin killing Israeli soldiers along WITH the Palestinians? That's the hardest part, because I too believe there are Israeli Arabs who love Israel as a Jewish state, but the problem is finding the real ones, and not the ones who say they are so they're not justly expelled.
Why do we need to test the Arabs? There is a commandment to expel them - all of them.
Danny,
If that were truly feasible in today's political climate in Israel I would personally help to do it. The problem is that Jews as a people are plagued by this disease of liberalism. Liberalism and secularism combined is eating away at Israeli society. There is no way in hell you could convince the Israeli public (especially the Arabs because Israel was so myopic and didn't see the stupidity of giving them citizenship) will ever vote for, let alone remain silent during an expulsion of almost 2 millions Arabs. Now, on the other hand, if Israel were to allow the security situation to spin out of control, to the near brink of collapse, the Israeli people, I believe, would be so helpless and disgusted with all Arabs, that they (conservatives and liberals) would happily drag them to the border and kick them over it. Israel is too content right now and most of its people are ignorant and just don't know or just don't care. That's why.
Alyehund,Danny,
The Arabs in the army would need to be tried carefully. It is not for me to work out the practical details of how to do that. The ones who are willing to stand defend Israel would be hated and attacked by their own brethren. They would need to be protected, and some system for accomplishing that would need to be invented, just like there must be a way to test the Arab soldiers. (They must be willing to kill the Arab enemies of Israel, and in the process to risk their own lives, as do the Jewish soldiers.)
One important thing is that Israel is not just at war with "Palestinians", Israel is at war with the whole world of Islam. Therefore (unreformed)Islam is enemy ideology. Over 1/2 of Quran would need to be edited, before it could be acceptable.
Perhaps the unreformed Islam should be considered Illegal in Israel and Arabs could earn their citizenship by wiping their asses with Quran? Or Israel, in collaboration with some reform imam could invent a new form of Islam, and only such new, reformed Islam would be allowed in Israel.
Alyehoud,
I think that liberalism is the disease of media personalities, of those who pose as Jewish representatives. Any average Jew has as little compunction about evicting Arabs now as sixty years ago.
Why don't you set up the camps and exterminate them? That is what the commandment tells us to do.
The commandment tells us to sent Arabs into exile. Why don't we do that, or exterminate?
The commandment is to expel the natives. Only Amalek has to be exterminated because he attacked the Jews arbitrarily. The natives are fighting for their land, which is their right to do, and so we should expel them, not exterminate.
Your figures are partly wrong.
The Israelis abroad are not counted among the Israeli population, they are not 900,000 but 750,000 and 20% of them are not Jewish (and many of the others are just new immigrants who went back home).
The arab fertility rate is dropping quickly, the jewish one is going up slowly. Within 5-10 years it will be higher than the arab one.
This question was already discussed in the comments. In practice, all Israelis who visit the country once a year are counted among residents. According to some sources, almost all foreign residents are included in census.
Obadiah's figures are from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics' official publications. The "alternative statisticians" write nonsense. Birth rate among secular Israelis is very low, and among th religious sector dropped sharply in response to the cutting of government subsidies to large families.
At any rate, Arabs are ALREADY 34% among Israeli's young, so that's a matter of status quo rather than trends.
The Arab problem is not the only problem.
The main problem is that among the Jews who are under the age of 5, probably between 30% to 50% are Jews that when they'll grow up to the age of 18 they will choose to join the Yeshiva for their rest of their life instead of joining the Army at the of 18 or 19.
No I think we shall not give Eretz Yi'sreal at any price nor should we sit back and see the Arab population among doubles at an alarming rate.
Your approach is very offending because I know Christian Arabs, Druze, Bedouins, and non-Halakha Jews from the former Soviet Union who fought alongside during the last Lebanon war in my Battalion. I also heard of a number of Christian immigrants who their parents came from places like the Philippines to work here in Israel, and they have also joined the Army.
This is something that we should foster.
Maybe we should encourage immigration of new Zionist immigrants who will be willing to serve our Jewish Nation even if they are not Jewish according to the Halakha. And replace them with our non-Zionist population!
Nadav - sure, that would be great, but then Israel would simply be the Zionist State, not the Jewish State. I know that I personally wouldn't support it nearly to the extent I do currently knowing that it is my People's Homeland and it represents me as a Jew.
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Your point about the Charedim is well taken and understood. There will be a time in the future when your leaders will be more so leaders than politicians, but until you ignorant Israelis keep electing people like Olmert, Barak, etc. you get what you ask for.
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Israel will be forced one day to require many, most, or all of it's charedim to serve. I think once it happens it won't be that bad, and many will leave for the US and Europe, but that's alright. They're sort of like the Blacks here in the US - once you give them free services like subsidies, food stamps, etc, they'll never be able to break the cycle because they're dependent on it. I guess you can than Ben-Gurion for that?
It is sad to hear such crazy and ridiculous comments from people here; some advocating genocide of another people. Hello? You are Jewish! MURDER IS WRONG. Genocide, expulsion, etc are not the answer. The answer: foster a sense of Israeliness which is INCLUSIVE. Israeli Arab citizens should be citizens of Israel, and should be compelled to do non military national service to help communities. Why not?
using a carrot instead of a stick approach is much better. Some of you advocating murder, expulsion etc, should look back in Jewish history and realize that you are no different than the monsters who advocated the same things against Jews. Grow up.
Mark, let me guess. You are one of those types who go to interfaith temples, never learned the Torah, and think of Talmud as the Anarchist's Cookbook.
Well, open the Torah. Murder is wrong, but killing is right. There are some very relevant commandments: to exterminate the Amalek because he attacked us when we were weak, and to evict ALL the natives of the land because they remember the land was theirs and their hostility is implacable.
Now, you may not like this, but please refrain from telling me about Judaism which you have no idea about.
"Inclusive Israelness"? Ok, go to your temple rabbi and ask what havdala is. He might not know it, too.
Israel should do what it once does — if you commit a crime against the country, then you and yours are OUT OF THERE. That is how it use to be when it was still a very young country, and many of these unwantables became the slaves of the saudis.
Why not instill that again? THERE IS NO ROAD MAP - it's a DEAD END. It's time for us all to stand up and say NO MORE.
On behalf of Sderot, Ashkelon, Jerusalem (whole never half again) and other areas where Jews and non Jews are not safe from the Arafaters' terrorism - it's time for Israelis to stand up and kick them out. Or else - watch Israel implode from within.
GET RID OF OLMERT & Co. WAKE UP!!
I think there will be an unpleasant, major event within the next few years that will create the opportunity to correct the situation not necessarily reflective of the liberal or moderate mentality prevailing now. I'm alluding of course to a major war where Israel's existence is threatened. The leadership of the day could use this as an excuse to impose martial law and parliament suspended or dissolved. Much restorative work can be done under these circumstances. Many mistakes have been made and Israel has limited its options to deal with the demographic problem, for instance, in a way that sits comfortably with behavior expected of western democracies but second nature of course, to her enemies. But as we've seen of late, those same western democracies will face a similar situation given the rapid parasitic penetration of Islam, imported and subsidized into their own countries. The only way we will survive is to become like them - revert to our primitive instincts, tribe against tribe. I have a bad feeling that we wont succeed. We dont have the focus of our enemy. I can see us arguing about what to do while we get Islamofied.
Danny the Admin , http://www.samsonblinded.org says:
The commandment is to expel the natives. Only Amalek has to be exterminated because he attacked the Jews arbitrarily. The natives are fighting for their land, which is their right to do, and so we should expel them, not exterminate.
Please cite this commandment. Does it apply a couple thousand years later?
If indeed true, this type of Judaism is no different than extremists within Islam. I for one, have read the Koran and understand what it says. It doesn't say expel Jews, it says fight those who fight you. Which is not the least bit as bad as what your suggesting. This right which you perceive is given to you from God is what drives your adversary. Perhaps now you can understand our position.
Exodus 23:24, inter alia.
All commandments apply forever. Indeed, it is a common sense to expel you enemies. There is not a single classical commentator who argued differently. For atheists, that's what Machiavelli was saying.
Your right, I guess it's also common sense for us to expel you enemies as well - to "wipe Israel off the map"