“Weapons research is in no way part of Iran’s program. Even with regard to the Zionist regime, our path to a solution is ELECTIONS.” Ahmadinejad, 08.26.2006
Arabs are nearing a majority in the ostensibly Jewish state of Israel. How so? Officially they are only 19%. The statistics are skewed. The influx of adult elderly Jews from the USSR has artificially enlarged Jewish presence in Israel. The increase, however, is not sustainable: many immigrants are long past childbearing age, and many others do not want children. The Jewish and Arab populations of Israel are drastically different: the Arab population is much younger and prolific. In order to avoid statistical distortions, we must compare comparable groups.
The aliyah largely ended in 1994, twelve years ago. We may compare the Jewish and Arab populations aged 0-9 (under 10 years), a standard statistical sampling for which data is available. The 0-9 group is the only current group which will be voting sixty years from now. Thirty percent, or approximately 400,000 Arabs, fall into that group opposed to or 850,000 Jews or 16.5%. In the most relevant age group, Arabs are now almost half the number of Jews. The ratio is even higher for the 0-4 age group.
Young Jews are much more likely to emigrate from Israel than Arabs. Official data is lacking. A conservative estimate is that 500,000 Jews have emigrated since 1948, and the flow only increases. Ten thousand Jews move permanently from Israel every year. Most emigrants are under 40, and it is reasonable to estimate that the 0-9 age group constitutes a quarter of Israeli emigrants. Emigration erodes the group by approximately 2,500 people per year. By the time the 0-9 group reaches its mid-forties, about 100,000 people, probably more, will emigrate. Arabs, mostly from Jordan, continuously move into Israel in family reunion schemes. That leaves at least 400,000 Arabs (and 60,000 other people) versus no more than 750,000 Jews in the 10-year age sampling. Jews will constitute at most 62% of the group, not even enough to form qualified a majority in the Knesset.
Unlike the opinionated Jews, the Arabs are politically coherent. With a 33% share, they will control the Knesset. In many municipalities, Arabs will be the majority. Arab mayors will govern Israeli Jews. What did we create Israel for?
With Israeli medicine, a tax-free environment, total security, and extensive welfare benefits from the Jewish state, the birth rate among Israeli Arabs is one of the world’s highest. The Jewish share in the Israeli population will continue to decline.
The implications of this simple evidence are dramatic. Even if Arabs immediately reduced their breeding rate to that of the Jews, they will have the largest faction in the Knesset by 2070. In the more plausible scenario of the Arab breeding rate decreasing only slowly over a generation, Arabs will outnumber Jews in Israel well before 2050.
That is not the issue of uncertain trends. The die is cast. The Arabs will be the majority in many Israeli towns and the largest group in the Knesset.
Seventy-two percent of the Arabs lived in southern Israel in 1948, but only 13% now; they moved to Israeli cities. Two percent of the Arabs lived in Jerusalem in 1967, but 18% today. Ten percent of the Jews live in fertile northern Israel, compared to 46% of Arabs. They already are 70% in Lower Haifa and 95% in Akko. Those were Jewish cities once. Israel’s Jews are becoming isolated, if not in ghettos than in enclaves. The Jews are slowly being reduced to the desert south. As happened in the inner cities, Jews move out when Arabs move in, and still more Israeli towns are left in Arab hands.
Palestine’s leaders understand the implications of demographic change. In several speeches Arafat announced that the Palestinians would take Israel over peacefully through breeding. It’s time Israelis recognize the implications.