There are many gaps in the story of Rabin’s assassination. But we can reliably fill them from context. The Israeli ruling establishment has a history of political assassinations, including Arlozoroff, the Season, and most likely the Kahanes and Zeevi. Assassinating Rabin wouldn’t have been outrageous. The establishment also has a documented history of blatant disregard for the law, such as the Beilin-Peres negotiations with the PLO in Cairo before Rabin’s election. Beilin and Peres are heavily invested in the peace process, and one more “victim of the peace process” was not a high price for them to pay. Both hated Rabin and numbered many grievances against him.
The two conspiracies were running concurrently. One was a normal Shin-Bet provocation against the right wing, in line with the subsequent framing of Goldstein, the purported Kahane Chai planning of the attack on an Arab school, and so on. Shin-Bet’s agent Champagne worked in Hebron for years, and Yigal Amir was just one of his targets. Shin-Bet aimed to frame the right, not kill Rabin. So Amir, unknown to himself, was shooting blanks at Rabin. Shin-Bet infiltrated Amir into the sterile area of the highest security and warned the guards to stay away from Rabin to give Amir clear shot. That much we see on the video: Rabin’s guards step away when Amir draws his gun. Subsequently, the shouts are heard, “It’s blanks!” The shooting was theatrically staged after the immense peace show. It was planned in a sterile area rather than in the square so that no one would stop Amir. Shin Bet, accordingly, placed video operators near the scene to have evidence against Amir—hence the Kempler video. To retain credibility, the video had to be amateurish. Rabin was likely aware of the plot because on the video he seems to look at Amir quietly, without gesticulation. The Shin-Bet plot had been cooking for years. Champagne spent much time with Amir and the conservatives.
A big change came about shortly before the peace rally. Rabin publicly refused to make concessions to Arabs and called for annexing the West Bank. It seems that he entered one of his hysterical mood swings. It became paramount for the Peres-Beilin group to get rid of Rabin. Planning the removal of Rabin—at that stage, not necessarily by murder—they came to know of Shin-Bet’s provocation plot, an insignificant operation among many similar ones. At that point, Peres or Beilin instructed Shin-Bet to move forward with the fake assassination, but also planned a follow-up: the real assassination of Rabin in his car. Although Shin-Bet was profoundly leftist and both Peres and Beilin had many appointees there, the security service undoubtedly knew nothing of the planned real assassination. Rabin was probably killed by a guard who worked for Peres. Rabin’s own guard was killed in the ensuing skirmish, and honorably buried a few days later after “committing suicide.”
Now Shin-Bet realized that the Peres-Beilin group had framed it. The secret of Champagne could not be kept for long, and as soon as it came out Shin-Bet would be implicated in Rabin’s murder. That’s no small thing: a Shin-Bet agent convinced a right-winger to shoot Rabin. That smacks of a putsch. So Shin-Bet released the Kempler video to prove that Amir didn’t kill Rabin. Shin-Bet didn’t want to take a crash course with Peres and Beilin, and didn’t dispute the official version of Amir assassinating Rabin, but secured its own back by proving that Amir didn’t kill Rabin.