End the hostile propaganda. Purge the government and security forces of those affiliated with terrorists. Crack down on terrorists. Suppress incitation in media. Dissolve hostile militant organizations. Remove hostile propaganda from the education system. Fire those on the Most Wanted list from the government and security services. Accept foreign assistance in discovering and combating terrorists. Prosecute terrorists. Arrest the most wanted terrorists. Stop the flow of illegal arms and explosives. Clarify the hostile statements of government officials. Set a timetable for executing those demands.
The list sounds like Israeli demands to Palestinian Authority. Wrong. That’s the Austria-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia which opened the First World War.

Austria’s demands were sensible and extremely moderate. A Serbian killed Austrian prince – an extremely hostile act which, though formally short of casus belli, qualified as such in the context of Serbian militancy toward Austria-Hungary. Israel likewise invaded Lebanon after the Palestinians attempted assassination of Shlomo Argov. Assassination of Franz Ferdinand was not a criminal act by lone radical or a fringe group, but part of the large-scale plot by Serbian military.

Serbia was a secessionist territory of Austro-Hungary. Serbia was seething with political radicals and terrorists. Serbia’s government was almost non-existent, and the power belonged to security forces which supported the terrorists. Serbian radicals were pan-Slavic nationalists, just like the Palestinians are pan-Arab nationalists.

Just like Palestine, Serbia replied to the ultimatum with weasel words of acceptance. It accepted the ultimatum with minor clarifications which made the reply empty of meaning. Austria immediately sent a dispatch to European governments pointing out Serbia’s trick, but Serbia already scored huge PR victory by convincing the common Europeans of its goodwill. Just as with Arab declarations of peaceful intent, outsiders ignore the all-important small print.

Even after its ultimatum was de facto rejected, Austria-Hungary looked for a limited war, a punishing raid against Sarajevo. That proved wishful thinking just like the Israeli plans for ending Lebanon invasion at Litani River. Russia’s meddling assured a total war. Russia fought on behalf of Serbia just like half a century later it fought on Egypt’s side. Muslim countries push Palestinian to fight Israel like the Russian pushed Serbs.

WWI was fought for no good reason, over nothing but only to satisfy aspirations of nationalist grandeur and divert public attention from domestic problems. Germany didn’t expect to annex or even continuously occupy France, Russia hoped to gain very little by attacking Austro-Hungary, Serbia didn’t imagine scoring a victory against Austria, and Britain had only a remote interest in humbling Germany. WWI is often erroneously attributed to the web of diplomatic triggers and alliances. Nations, however, routinely ignore unwelcome obligations. Europe plunged into the war because everyone expected it to be short. The perspective of limited war is provocative.

WWI was about words. About joint statements. European treaties, worthless per se, became the important declarations of nationalism. Europeans elevated treaties into policies, and fought over them. Where statements are important, words become dangerous. The wording of Austrian ultimatum, Serbian response, weasel words of Austria-German treaty became casus belli.

The Europeans had no real grievances which would justify a major war. Nor do Jews and Arabs. In the situations of latent hostility, joint statements can lead to wars. The Annapolis statement ignites hopes with unrealistic promises. Unfulfilled hopes ignite societies.

Such as the Palestinian society.

A longing for Messiah is endemic to Jews. Powerless for centuries, they turned their eyes to supernatural salvation. The rabbis sought to establish themselves as community leaders and channeled Jewish hopes into the otherworldly realm where the rabbis ostensibly reign. Atheist Israelis look for messiah politicians. Recently, Israelis were crazy about Rabin (Oslo), Netanyahu (Wye River), Sharon (Gaza), and now again about Netanyahu. With hopes for a decent politician at home running slim, Israelis search for salvation abroad: Bush was declared a great friend of Israel (also, of Saudi Arabia). The latest addition to the pantheon is Sarkozy who, in reality, is at least as friendly to Lebanon as to Israel.

Alexander the Great was the last major military leader who had actually led his army. After him, the armies became too complex to perform on the battlefield on their own. The commanders had to stay behind the lines to watch and direct the troops. Since then, armies relied on military bureaucracies. All the more, political and administrative bureaucracies govern the states. Heads of states have little say in their countries’ policies; they are team players, responsible to the web of supporters, associates, and sponsors. Even independents like Ross Perot, in the unlikely event they come to power, would have to abide by the vested interests of bureaucracies – or face sabotage.

France cannot expect gaining much influence with the American vassal Israel. Lebanon is much more amenable; Lebanese citizens who reside in Lebanon overwhelmingly voted for Sarkozy. France needs to rebuild ties with Syria, which is desperate to break the international isolation, and with Iranian “moderate” opposition. Israel has nothing to offer France; weak Israel which suffers from Palestinian gangsters has a slim chance of befriending a major player such as France. The hope of rapprochement with France will work against Israel: just like Israel shrinks from attacking Gaza now to avoid upsetting the US Administration bent on the peace process, so would Israel hesitate to attack Hezbollah out of fear of alienating friendly Sarkozy whose stakes in Lebanon are high.

At most, Sarkozy won’t be pushing Israel into the suicidal peace process with unrelenting enemies. Given the friendly American pressure for the political suicide, Sarkozy’s good intentions are inconsequential for Israel. Sarkozy’s election opened for Israel a short window of opportunity to attack Syria and Iran to the world’s applause.

Western Europe was heavily Islamized for centuries. Nations come and go; Muslims are coming back into Europe. That influx benefits Israel. Superficially, swelling numbers of Muslim voters make European politicians still more anti-Israeli. Given the European anti-Semitism, the animosity to Israel could hardly increase any more. Muslims, swarming the streets of Europe, will alienate the locals and create anti-Muslim sentiment similar to the one felt to Jews, when we were many there. Right-wing backlash in Austria, France, Belgium, and other European democracies reflects popular resentment against the bizarre Muslim immigrants. Leftists who claim peace and calm have engulfed Europe forever after the demonstrated horrors of WWII will be disappointed. The world wars proved that bloodbath works and is basically tolerable – see, the life goes one, whatever they told you in schools about the Western Front slaughter. Europe will lash against the Muslim immigrants. That won’t bring its rapprochement with Israel, but is still welcome.

Europeans are concerned that Israel abuses Palestinian terrorists and their civilian supporters. Britain, for its part, dreams of Mandate days when it was master of Palestine and created states like Jordan or Iraq at whim. The British joined the EU initiative of sending observers to Gaza. To observe what? Hamas and the PIJ make no secret of shelling Israel. The observers are actually reporters, entertaining the world with one-sided stories of mad Jews shelling poor terrorist Arab villagers.

Europe is full of Muslims. No mainstream party can afford to alienate Muslim voters. On top of that, Europeans have never particularly liked Jews. Israel is perceived as a US beachhead in the Middle East, naturally opposed by the European powers. Everyone is fed up with Iraqi violence and wants to reduce fighting in the Middle East - at the Jews’ expense. Everyone is concerned with oil prices and wants closer relations with Arab oil racketeers - at the cost of Israeli security.

The EU wants to send peacekeepers to Gaza, technically and morally Israeli territory. Why limit peacekeeping to Gaza? Send European troops to patrol Jerusalem where Arab suicide bombers murder more people than in Sderot. Better still, herd Jews into a ghetto and guard us against the Arabs.

Faced with rampaging crime in New York’s slums, Giuliani flooded the place with police but also actively prosecuted scores of criminals. European observers, peacekeepers, and other supporters will guard their Arab enemies against Israeli retaliation.

Israel is not a Third World nation unable to handle itself and does not require European peacekeeping nannies in Gaza.

Governments that jump on the bandwagon of criticizing Israeli brutalities in Lebanon forget the skeletons in their own closets.

France stocks close to three millions skeletons from its recent wars in Indochina and Algeria. Add French Jews shipped to Nazi death camps with enthusiastic support of the freedom-loving French people—freedom from Jews, that is.

China need not go abroad to satisfy its lust for blood. Mao’s government killed around fifty millions of its people, and the current semi-democratic government murders enough dissidents in jails to be timid talking about Lebanon.

Russia is another story.Incessantly murdering its own people and conquering its unfortunate neighbors for centuries, Russia never forgot to exterminate the Jews. Russians, including the Ukrainian variety, killed proportionally more Jews than did the Nazis. To that end, the Russians helped the Nazis as much as they could. They started by partitioning Poland so the main Jewish population centers fell to the Nazis. After the war, the diligent Russians tried to finish the Nazi job: in 1952, the Soviet government instigated pogroms and began deporting Jews to Siberia, exactly the place the Nazis initially earmarked for us.

The British had the good sense of voicing their humanitarian concerns mildly. So we need not recall how the Brits killed Chinese civilians in the Opium Wars or the Irish just recently.

The American president made nodded ritually to public opinion and said something good about Lebanese civilians. Perhaps he forgot how his father presided over the turkey-shoot of the fleeing, defenseless Iraqi army in 1991. Or maybe public opinion forgot about Dresden, Hiroshima, Vietnamese defoliation campaigns, and numerous other situations when Americans specifically targeted civilians.

The world tried to exterminate the Jews by various means for two millennia. Now the moral world chooses moral means. It wants Jews to be moral. Specifically, to be suicidally moral, to turn the other cheek to Muslims who are only doing what the Christians tried for centuries—kill off the Jews. So the Muslims are obviously right, and Israel is wrong to oppose them. The politically correct Christian world cannot say so much and concedes to Israel a ghetto-sized country, another maidan field where Jews should wait patiently while the firing squad gets ready. Jews should not make so much fuss about a few hundred missiles a day showering their ghetto. Hey, the Lebanese guerillas do not target American or Russian towns (imagine the kind of restraint the United States or Russia would show). Hands off the Lebanese people, Jews! Lay your hands on yourselves.