Medieval Arabs developed decent science. Then Europeans did likewise, but they grew lazy, and Americans and Japanese took their turn. Now the Indians (certain castes) are creative, numerous, and relatively hardworking. Many of them emigrate, some return, many stay home. China cannot rise much because Confucian culture lacks creativity, only emphasizes diligent work. India is the best candidate for the next superpower. India, however, suffers from the same problem as Israel: lack of competitive clusters. Both countries have excellent brains which accept foreign outsourcing, but lack the infrastructure: excellent universities, venture finance, business-friendly regulation, and a host of support industries such as marketing. It remains unclear and indeed improbable whether India can develop competitive clusters rather than remain an outlet for high-tech outsourcing. But if it does, that would be great for Israel, as India has big problems with Islam, terrorism, somewhat resents America and Britain, and historically was not anti-Semitic, though its socialist and some nationalist leaders promote anti-Semitic feelings.
China won’t develop into a superpower both because of its non-creative Confucian culture and huge population which prevents upward pressure on wages, thus necessitating technological advancement. (India’s intellectually able castes are relatively small.) China, however, has already accumulated huge financial surplus and its totalitarian government daily squeezes more from its citizens without distributing much of the funds. China, therefore, makes a good friend for a country like Israel. Chinese, however, are highly pragmatic, and would side with Muslim regimes against Israel, especially that that doesn’t preclude Israel from supplying China with military technologies.
It makes sense for Israel to shift her foreign focus onto India despite the American and Chinese objections.
[Longer essays on China are here: No clash of civilizations and The Red Dragon]
