Medieval Arabs developed decent science. Then Europeans did likewise, but they grew lazy, and the Americans and Japanese took their turn. Now the Indians (certain castes) are creative, numerous, and relatively hardworking. Many of them emigrate; some return, but many stay home. China cannot rise much because the Confucian culture lacks creativity, and only emphasizes diligent work. India is the best candidate for the next superpower. India, however, suffers from the same problem as Israel: a lack of competitive clusters. Both countries have excellent brains and accept foreign outsourcing, but lack the infrastructure: excellent universities, venture finance, business-friendly regulation, and a host of support industries such as marketing. It remains unclear whether India can develop competitive clusters rather than remain an outlet for high-tech outsourcing, and indeed it is improbable. But if it does, that would be great for Israel. India has big problems with Islamic terrorism, somewhat resents America and Britain, and historically has not been anti-Semitic, though its socialist and some nationalist leaders promote anti-Semitic feelings.

China won’t develop into a superpower for two reasons: its non-creative Confucian culture and its huge population, which prevents the upward pressure on wages that would necessitate technological advancement (India’s intellectually able castes are relatively small).  China, however, has already accumulated a huge financial surplus, and its totalitarian government daily squeezes more from its citizens without distributing much of the funds. China, therefore, makes a good friend for a country like Israel. The Chinese, however, are highly pragmatic, and would side with Muslim regimes against Israel, especially since that doesn’t preclude Israel from supplying China with military technologies.

It makes sense for Israel to shift her foreign focus to India despite the American and Chinese objections.

[Longer essays on China are here: No clash of civilizations and The Red Dragon]