Students of international relations often speak of the balance of power. That is incorrect. Not objective power but its subjective perception by the enemy. It is a balance of fear, or rather of terror. Given enough zeal, small countries have historically terrorized big ones into compliance. The English feud with Ireland is a recent example. England was definitely stronger, but raw power matter little. The willingness to brutally available power brutally is critical.
Hamas and Hezbollah are minor enemies by any standards. Yet they inflict unlimited terror on Israelis and are themselves highly tolerant of suffering. Regardless of power, the balance of terror runs against Israel.
What could Israel do to shift the balance of terror? Quite clearly, she should terrorize the terrorists. A head-on approach is to shed European niceties and act barbarously. Not that Israel always acts courteously. Young Arik Sharon launched a spiral of kidnappings by catching a Jordanese officer to exchange for Israelis held in Jordan. Looks very much like Hezbollah kidnapping Israelis to exchange for Arab prisoners.
Palestinians and Lebanese are used to suffering. Attacks, let alone slowly escalating attacks, will not break them. Arabs are used to shelling and expect it. In order to shift the balance of terror, Israel could devise non-conventional measures. For example, Iran suggests a prisoner exchange, meaning two Israeli MIAs for several hundred Arabs jailed in Israel. Turn the tables. Do the unexpected. Breach the Arabs’ mental defenses. Take female hostages.
It goes without saying that Israelis would not rape or otherwise brutalize them. Just round up the female population of several Muslim Lebanese villages and transfer the ladies to a camp, comfortable compared to their houses, guarded by Druzes or Lebanese Christians. And then agree to exchange prisoners: Israeli MIAs for the women.
In the mood for a bombing spree? Go for mosques. Want to punish the population for supporting Hezbollah? Don’t bomb them, but round up a thousand males, undress them, smear them with tar and march through a town. Israel will not inflict terror on the Arabs by lethal means but could shift the balance of terror by non-conventional, non-lethal measures.
Don’t tell the Lebanese that Israel fights them because of Hezbollah. That sounds ridiculous. They know Hezbollah defends them, that Hezbollah ended the Israeli occupation and is their guarantor against hostile Christians. Do something unexpected. For example, distribute pornography. Requisition the land of rich villagers and give it to peasants. Distribute the shop inventories. Do the unexpected. Bypass the walls the Lebanese have built against the fear in their minds. And do so with next to no killing.
